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February 1, 2008
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FED CUTS ANOTHER HALF POINT
- The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut the interest rate for the second
time in just over a week by a half point and signaled further rate cuts
were possible. The Fed action pushed the federal funds rate to 3% and
followed a 0.75 percentage point cut on January 22. This action came in
the wake of news that the economy was much weaker than expected in the
fourth quarter. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure
of
the nationâs economic activity, grew at an annual rate of just
0.6%, adjusted for inflation, in the fourth quarter, down from 4.9%
growth in the third quarter.
- STOCKS
JUMP, THEN FALL
â Wednesdayâs rate cut caused the market to jump over 250
points, but it then settled back to close down 37 points. Some say the
market âdiscountedâ the rate decrease and wanted more.
- GOLD
SURGES - Minutes after the Fed decision, gold for April
delivery jumped $4.70 to $935.50 an ounce in after market trading.
- OIL
GYRATES
- Oil futures fluctuated Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut a key
interest rate less than many investors had hoped, and the government
reported larger than expected increases in crude oil and gasoline
inventories last week. Light, sweet crude for March delivery fell 7
cents to $91.57 a barrel, but alternated between gains and losses.
- DOLLAR
PLUNGES
- The dollar fell against the euro in anticipation of the Federal
Reserve half-percentage point cut to prevent the U.S. from falling into
recession. A government report showed the economy weakened more than
forecast in the fourth quarter, reflecting a deepening housing slump.
The Canadian dollar was worth more than the U.S. currency for a second
straight day on bets Canada's interest-rate advantage will grow with a
Fed cut.
WHAT
DOES ALL THIS MEAN?
- We're not pretending to know, but we can tell you a couple of things.
First, we arenât sure if Adam Smithâs âInvisible
Handâ is at work in the free market any more. For better or
worse, it looks a lot like events are being shaped by government
intervention. Second, we're all left hoping that the "powers that be"
know what they're doing. Also, you really have to wonder if
all
this manipulation is helping and what will the Fed do when the rates
approach zero?
ARE YOU
HAPPY?
- Despite all the gloom and doom we hear, a recent Gallup poll says
Americans are not as angry as politicians, pundits and press want us to
believe. "More than eight in ten Americans say they are
satisfied
with their personal lives at this time, including a solid majority who
say they are âvery satisfied.â The Gallup findings also
say, "Republicans are more likely than Independents or Democrats to say
they are very satisfied with their personal lives and that they are
very happy."
STIMULUS
PACKAGE
â The President and the House have agreed on a âstimulus
packageâ to the tune of $146 billion. While the House has
approved a package of tax rebates and business incentives, the Senate
is considering its own plan...no doubt adding a few âpounds of
porkâ along the way. Not ones to waste time, the scam
artists have already swung into action, even before a stimulus package
has passed. Check out the
warnings.
NO
ECONOMIC DARK AGES â A WSJ
article put a somewhat positive spin on our current economic woes.
"Make no mistake, the U.S. economy is weak and getting weaker.
Recession odds have elevated to Condition Red. But the probability
remains that what our economy faces is less a plunge into the dark ages
than a cyclical purging of excesses -- perhaps akin to the eight-month
recession in 2001."
CRIMINAL
INVESTIGATIONS
â The FBI has âopened criminal investigations into 14
corporations as part of a crackdown on improper subprime
lending.â The investigation, which includes accounting
fraud and insider trading, reaches across the industry to include
developers, subprime lenders, companies that securitized loans and
investment banks that held them. Some of the FBI
investigation
overlaps an ongoing SEC investigation into the subprime market
collapse. We wonât even get into the various state
investigations that have been launched.
âMASTERS
OF THE UNIVERSEâ â âShould Bankers Pay for Their
Mismanagement?â is the title of an article in the NY Times
by Eduardo Porter and he posed the question: âWhat is to be done
with the bankers? From the savings and loan meltdown in the 1980s to
the current housing-led seizure, financial institutions have proved
unable to curb their appetite for risky assets â blowing up the
bank and spreading economic mayhem. After every crisis, regulators say
they will cure the financial system of the recent folly, reassuring the
public that the caustic asset du jour â Latin American debt,
Internet stocks, mortgages in Florida â will never again be
allowed to bring the banks down. Yet the recurrence of disasters
suggests that the risky cravings of the masters of the universe are
uncurbed. All that happens is that the next crisis takes a somewhat
different form from the last, using some newly noxious financial
product that used to be considered safe as, um, houses.â We are
with Eduardo. He even proposes some solutions. Youâll need to
register, but the full article is worth reading and can be found at http://www.nytimes.com.
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WE HAVE MET THE ENEMY...AND HE IS
US? - Robert J. Samuelson writes in a Newsweek
commentary that "Capitalism's most dangerous enemies are capitalists,"
and argues that the current brand of capitalism favors a privileged
few. "No one can have watched the subprime mortgage debacle without
noticing the absurd contrast between the magnitude of the failure and
the lavish rewards heaped on those who presided over it.â
Mr. Samuelson places the blame squarely on Wall Street's pay
practices, which encourage extreme risk taking. The complete
article can be read at www.newsweek.com.
CAPITALISM
STILL THE BEST
â Well, it may be out of control and we may be heading toward a
recession, but donât believe the âusual gloom that comes
with a cyclical economic downturn.â Further, there are some
darker predictions that capitalism as we know it will soon end.
Consider:
- It is imperfect, but no system on earth is better
at creating and fairly distributing wealth than the free-market
system.
- The
freest countries are also the richest. Those in the top 20% of free
nations have an average per person GDP of $28,217; those in the bottom
40% average $3,998.
- In
Zimbabwe, the state-run grain company now makes luxury dog food for
Robert Mugabe and the other privileged Marxists who run the
country...while up to four million people starve.
- Arabs
on the West Bank, who live in a nearly totally unfree economy as wards
of the U.N., suffer from a 57% poverty rate. A third live on less than
$1.60 a day.
- In
the Congo, another socialist paradise riven by war, 45,000 people are
dying unnatural deaths each month, in large part due to food shortages,
malaria, diarrhea, pneumonia, and even measles and whooping cough...all
easily preventable and treatable in free, rich
societies.
- Odds are that we are going through a short-term
economic slump that will be followed by another long-term boom.
CONCERN
OVER FUTURES EXCHANGES
- The proposed $11 billion âmergerâ by CME Group and Nymex
Holdings would create the largest exchange in the world, but is raising
concern about the power of the combined company. The two companies are
the only U.S. futures exchanges with substantial clearing operations.
BOND
INSURER BAILOUT?
- Help for this beleaguered industry may be in the works. The New York
State Insurance Department and others are seeking ways to shore up
troubled bond insurers. Banks, private-equity firms and billionaire
investors are likely to participate.
MUNI
BOND TROUBLES
- Barclays predicts that banks will need to escrow as much as $143
billion if municipal bonds are downgraded. Just the bonds insured by
two insurers (MBIA and Ambac Financial Group) will require banks to
raise at least $22 billion if their insured bonds drop one level from
an AAA credit rating. A drop to A would require six times that amount.
JOBLESS
CLAIMS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY
- Jobless claims fell this week, comforting news for those concerned
with the labor market and the current state of the economy. The
Department of Labor reports that in term of first-time jobless claims,
figures fell by 1,000 to 301,000 â the lowest level since early
September. Additionally, over the past four weeks, jobless claims have
fallen by 56,000.
GREENSPAN
SAYS GLOBAL RECESSION âINEVITABLEâ
â Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said in a recent speech that
âsome form of a global recession is inevitable at some point."
Bet he wouldnât have said that when he was Chairman, but when you
think about it, he is probably right. The economy canât just go
up all the time.
HATS
OFF TO ANGELO
- Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo, under fire over the size of his
potential payout from the proposed sale of the troubled mortgage
company, will forfeit $37.5 million in severance pay, fees and perks.
While he will still retain retirement benefits and deferred
compensation and we doubt that the gesture will radically alter his
lifestyle, it is certainly more than we have seen other CEOs do in
similar circumstances.
EVIL
KERVIEL LOST $7.2 BILLION
- Rogue Societe Generale trader Jerome Kerviel cost his employer $7.2
billion in unauthorized trades and his actions may have moved global
stock markets deeper into crisis. The loss may also make the French
banking giant a takeover target. Just how in the world can âone
lone traderâ lose $7.2 billion?
WHAT IS
A DEFAULT CREDIT SWAP? -
Apparently, it is the practice of swapping loans that are in default.
Why you would want to be on the receiving side of the swap is unclear
to us. However, Moody's believes that the swaps will magnify the
subprime-related mess because they drew unrelated financial
institutions and investors into the mortgage meltdown. "Given the size
of the market now and the lack of public information on who holds
what...this market will be really tested for the first time if we do
see a big round of defaults."
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HOW
REAL WAS THE PROSPERITY? â Hereâs an interesting
BusinessWeek article that analyzes our economic past and
future. Read it at www.businessweek.com.
ANNUITIES
SHINE
â In the last several years, there has been a lot of negative
press about indexed and fixed annuities. Guess what? We havenât
seen one article in the last week. Lots of those self-proclaimed
experts would be a lot better off with more of their assets in an
annuity about now.
FLIGHT
FROM EQUITY FUNDS
â Globally, retail investors withdrew a whopping $28 billion from
equities last week. The obvious reason is a move to the safe haven of
fixed income and money market products.
REFINANCING
UP
- The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) announced that its seasonally
adjusted index of refinancing applications jumped nearly 17% for the
week ending Jan. 18, as falling interest rates have encouraged more
homeowners to attempt to refinance their mortgages.
REAL
ECONOMIC PROBLEM
â The real economic problem is all in our minds. âWhen
things are going up, we think they will continue going up forever. When
things go down, we think they are going down forever.â
VA
LIVING BENEFITS
â According to a Milliman survey, the vast majority of variable
annuity contract owners elect some form of optional living benefits
with their VA contracts.
DODGING
THE BULLET?
â Reports seem to indicate that U.S. insurers may have dodged the
worst of the 2007 financial market meltdown. Insurers still
face
challenges in 2008, including intense competition for new business and
variable annuity outflows.
RECORD
REVENUE
â The IRS brought in a record $23.5 billion in fiscal 2007 from
tax audits, up from $17.2 billion in 2006. According to
Kiplinger, âthis suggests that IRS efforts to update its return
selection formulas are paying off, and agents arenât doing as
many no-change audits on honest taxpayers.â
TOO
MUCH DISCLOSURE
â The SEC report on a recent Rand study about the differences
between broker-dealers and investment advisers is long (like about 219
pages long), but one thing that jumps out is that the current
disclosure environment isnât working, at least when it comes to
protecting investors. Instead, the investing public is being
overwhelmed by a blizzard of paperwork and theyâre just not
reading it. Donât expect quick action on this, but
thereâs got to be a better way!
STOP IT!
â Thatâs the word from the IRS when it comes to taxpayers
finding âcreative usesâ for Section 529 college savings
plan tax breaks. The Service will be issuing regulations that
prevent taxpayers from using Section 529 plans to avoid gift and
generation-skipping transfer taxes, and expect those regulations to be
retroactive.
GOT A
GOOD STORY?
â Then the Life and Health Insurance Foundation for Education
(LIFE) wants to hear from you. The organization is specifically looking
for stories about how health insurance and critical illness insurance
have helped clients. More information is available at http://www.lifehappens.org/reallife.
HOUSING
IS THE KEY
â Or so says Daniel Mudd, CEO of Fannie Mae. He believes that the
economic stimulus package is a good start, but "the trouble that
started with the housing market must also end with it.â Many
agree that the housing sector must be fixed before any stimulus plan
will succeed.
MANY
WORRIED, BUT NOT AFFECTED
- An LA Times/Bloomberg poll finds Americans are more worried about the
nation's fiscal health than they are about their own pocketbooks. While
79% of those surveyed are convinced a recession is likely within the
year, about two-thirds also say they have yet to feel the effects of
that forecast and rate their personal situation as âsecure.â
MOST
INVESTORS ARE âSITTING TIGHTâ
- Financial advisers report that most retail investors are sticking
with their investment strategies in spite of the market declines. "You
can tell they're nervous," said Annette Simon, principal of Garnet
Group, "Many are already in retirement or are approaching it. Our
counsel is to sit tight."
SUBPRIME
LAWSUITS
â The blame game has begun as to who is responsible for the
subprime-related losses, and an onslaught of lawsuits is expected. The NYT
says the legal issues will âstretch across continents and
regulatory jurisdictions, with an unprecedented complexity that will
make unraveling the mess significantly more difficult.â We say
that, as usual, the losers will be stockholders in the targeted
companies and the winners will be the attorneys and the executives in
charge during the debacle.
HEALTH,
EDUCATION COULD BUOY RECOVERY - BusinessWeek
believes government spending on education and health could help stave
off a recession. With baby boomers aging and student enrollments
rising, those sectors created 640,000 new jobs in the last year alone
and currently employ about 20% of the work force. Well, we suppose that
is good, isnât it?
LTCI IS
EXPENSIVE
â Really? Compared to what? Ask your clients to compare it
to their homeowners, automobile and health insurance. Or to
the
cost of assets they want to protect.
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