US FlagFebruary 1, 2008 Edition



FED CUTS ANOTHER HALF POINT - The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut the interest rate for the second time in just over a week by a half point and signaled further rate cuts were possible. The Fed action pushed the federal funds rate to 3% and followed a 0.75 percentage point cut on January 22. This action came in the wake of news that the economy was much weaker than expected in the fourth quarter.  Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nationâ™s economic activity, grew at an annual rate of just 0.6%, adjusted for inflation, in the fourth quarter, down from 4.9% growth in the third quarter. 
  • STOCKS JUMP, THEN FALL ⓠWednesdayâ™s rate cut caused the market to jump over 250 points, but it then settled back to close down 37 points. Some say the market âœdiscounted❠the rate decrease and wanted more.
  • GOLD SURGES - Minutes after the Fed decision, gold for April delivery jumped $4.70 to $935.50 an ounce in after market trading.
  • OIL GYRATES - Oil futures fluctuated Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut a key interest rate less than many investors had hoped, and the government reported larger than expected increases in crude oil and gasoline inventories last week. Light, sweet crude for March delivery fell 7 cents to $91.57 a barrel, but alternated between gains and losses.
  • DOLLAR PLUNGES - The dollar fell against the euro in anticipation of the Federal Reserve half-percentage point cut to prevent the U.S. from falling into recession. A government report showed the economy weakened more than forecast in the fourth quarter, reflecting a deepening housing slump. The Canadian dollar was worth more than the U.S. currency for a second straight day on bets Canada's interest-rate advantage will grow with a Fed cut.
WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? - We're not pretending to know, but we can tell you a couple of things. First, we arenâ™t sure if Adam Smithâ™s âœInvisible Hand❠is at work in the free market any more. For better or worse, it looks a lot like events are being shaped by government intervention. Second, we're all left hoping that the "powers that be" know what they're doing.  Also, you really have to wonder if all this manipulation is helping and what will the Fed do when the rates approach zero?

ARE YOU HAPPY? - Despite all the gloom and doom we hear, a recent Gallup poll says Americans are not as angry as politicians, pundits and press want us to believe.  "More than eight in ten Americans say they are satisfied with their personal lives at this time, including a solid majority who say they are âœvery satisfied.❠The Gallup findings also say, "Republicans are more likely than Independents or Democrats to say they are very satisfied with their personal lives and that they are very happy."

STIMULUS PACKAGE ⓠThe President and the House have agreed on a âœstimulus package❠to the tune of $146 billion. While the House has approved a package of tax rebates and business incentives, the Senate is considering its own plan...no doubt adding a few âœpounds of pork❠along the way.  Not ones to waste time, the scam artists have already swung into action, even before a stimulus package has passed.  Check out the warnings.

NO ECONOMIC DARK AGES ⓠA WSJ article put a somewhat positive spin on our current economic woes. "Make no mistake, the U.S. economy is weak and getting weaker. Recession odds have elevated to Condition Red. But the probability remains that what our economy faces is less a plunge into the dark ages than a cyclical purging of excesses -- perhaps akin to the eight-month recession in 2001."

CRIMINAL INVESTIGATIONS ⓠThe FBI has âœopened criminal investigations into 14 corporations as part of a crackdown on improper subprime lending.❠ The investigation, which includes accounting fraud and insider trading, reaches across the industry to include developers, subprime lenders, companies that securitized loans and investment banks that held them.  Some of the FBI investigation overlaps an ongoing SEC investigation into the subprime market collapse.  We wonâ™t even get into the various state investigations that have been launched.

âœMASTERS OF THE UNIVERSE❠ⓠâœShould Bankers Pay for Their Mismanagement?❠is the title of an article in the NY Times by Eduardo Porter and he posed the question: âœWhat is to be done with the bankers? From the savings and loan meltdown in the 1980s to the current housing-led seizure, financial institutions have proved unable to curb their appetite for risky assets ┠blowing up the bank and spreading economic mayhem. After every crisis, regulators say they will cure the financial system of the recent folly, reassuring the public that the caustic asset du jour ┠Latin American debt, Internet stocks, mortgages in Florida ┠will never again be allowed to bring the banks down. Yet the recurrence of disasters suggests that the risky cravings of the masters of the universe are uncurbed. All that happens is that the next crisis takes a somewhat different form from the last, using some newly noxious financial product that used to be considered safe as, um, houses.❠We are with Eduardo. He even proposes some solutions. Youâ™ll need to register, but the full article is worth reading and can be found at http://www.nytimes.com.


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WE HAVE MET THE ENEMY...AND HE IS US? - Robert J. Samuelson writes in a Newsweek commentary that "Capitalism's most dangerous enemies are capitalists," and argues that the current brand of capitalism favors a privileged few. "No one can have watched the subprime mortgage debacle without noticing the absurd contrast between the magnitude of the failure and the lavish rewards heaped on those who presided over it.❠ Mr. Samuelson places the blame squarely on Wall Street's pay practices, which encourage extreme risk taking.  The complete article can be read at www.newsweek.com.

CAPITALISM STILL THE BEST ⓠWell, it may be out of control and we may be heading toward a recession, but donâ™t believe the âœusual gloom that comes with a cyclical economic downturn.❠Further, there are some darker predictions that capitalism as we know it will soon end. Consider:  

  • It is imperfect, but no system on earth is better at creating and fairly distributing wealth than the free-market system. 
  • The freest countries are also the richest. Those in the top 20% of free nations have an average per person GDP of $28,217; those in the bottom 40% average $3,998.  
  • In Zimbabwe, the state-run grain company now makes luxury dog food for Robert Mugabe and the other privileged Marxists who run the country...while up to four million people starve. 
  • Arabs on the West Bank, who live in a nearly totally unfree economy as wards of the U.N., suffer from a 57% poverty rate. A third live on less than $1.60 a day.  
  • In the Congo, another socialist paradise riven by war, 45,000 people are dying unnatural deaths each month, in large part due to food shortages, malaria, diarrhea, pneumonia, and even measles and whooping cough...all easily preventable and treatable in free, rich societies.  
  • Odds are that we are going through a short-term economic slump that will be followed by another long-term boom.

CONCERN OVER FUTURES EXCHANGES - The proposed $11 billion âœmerger❠by CME Group and Nymex Holdings would create the largest exchange in the world, but is raising concern about the power of the combined company. The two companies are the only U.S. futures exchanges with substantial clearing operations.

BOND INSURER BAILOUT? - Help for this beleaguered industry may be in the works. The New York State Insurance Department and others are seeking ways to shore up troubled bond insurers. Banks, private-equity firms and billionaire investors are likely to participate. 

MUNI BOND TROUBLES - Barclays predicts that banks will need to escrow as much as $143 billion if municipal bonds are downgraded. Just the bonds insured by two insurers (MBIA and Ambac Financial Group) will require banks to raise at least $22 billion if their insured bonds drop one level from an AAA credit rating. A drop to A would require six times that amount.

JOBLESS CLAIMS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY - Jobless claims fell this week, comforting news for those concerned with the labor market and the current state of the economy. The Department of Labor reports that in term of first-time jobless claims, figures fell by 1,000 to 301,000 ┠the lowest level since early September. Additionally, over the past four weeks, jobless claims have fallen by 56,000.

GREENSPAN SAYS GLOBAL RECESSION âœINEVITABLE❠ⓠFormer Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said in a recent speech that âœsome form of a global recession is inevitable at some point." Bet he wouldnâ™t have said that when he was Chairman, but when you think about it, he is probably right. The economy canâ™t just go up all the time. 

HATS OFF TO ANGELO - Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo, under fire over the size of his potential payout from the proposed sale of the troubled mortgage company, will forfeit $37.5 million in severance pay, fees and perks. While he will still retain retirement benefits and deferred compensation and we doubt that the gesture will radically alter his lifestyle, it is certainly more than we have seen other CEOs do in similar circumstances.

EVIL KERVIEL LOST $7.2 BILLION - Rogue Societe Generale trader Jerome Kerviel cost his employer $7.2 billion in unauthorized trades and his actions may have moved global stock markets deeper into crisis. The loss may also make the French banking giant a takeover target. Just how in the world can âœone lone trader❠lose $7.2 billion? 

WHAT IS A DEFAULT CREDIT SWAP? - Apparently, it is the practice of swapping loans that are in default. Why you would want to be on the receiving side of the swap is unclear to us. However, Moody's believes that the swaps will magnify the subprime-related mess because they drew unrelated financial institutions and investors into the mortgage meltdown. "Given the size of the market now and the lack of public information on who holds what...this market will be really tested for the first time if we do see a big round of defaults."


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HOW REAL WAS THE PROSPERITY? ⓠHereâ™s an interesting BusinessWeek article that analyzes our economic past and future.  Read it at www.businessweek.com

ANNUITIES SHINE ⓠIn the last several years, there has been a lot of negative press about indexed and fixed annuities. Guess what? We havenâ™t seen one article in the last week. Lots of those self-proclaimed experts would be a lot better off with more of their assets in an annuity about now.

FLIGHT FROM EQUITY FUNDS ⓠGlobally, retail investors withdrew a whopping $28 billion from equities last week. The obvious reason is a move to the safe haven of fixed income and money market products.

REFINANCING UP - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) announced that its seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications jumped nearly 17% for the week ending Jan. 18, as falling interest rates have encouraged more homeowners to attempt to refinance their mortgages.

REAL ECONOMIC PROBLEM ⓠThe real economic problem is all in our minds. âœWhen things are going up, we think they will continue going up forever. When things go down, we think they are going down forever.â

VA LIVING BENEFITS ⓠAccording to a Milliman survey, the vast majority of variable annuity contract owners elect some form of optional living benefits with their VA contracts.

DODGING THE BULLET? ⓠReports seem to indicate that U.S. insurers may have dodged the worst of the 2007 financial market meltdown.  Insurers still face challenges in 2008, including intense competition for new business and variable annuity outflows.

RECORD REVENUE ⓠThe IRS brought in a record $23.5 billion in fiscal 2007 from tax audits, up from $17.2 billion in 2006.  According to Kiplinger, âœthis suggests that IRS efforts to update its return selection formulas are paying off, and agents arenâ™t doing as many no-change audits on honest taxpayers.â

TOO MUCH DISCLOSURE ⓠThe SEC report on a recent Rand study about the differences between broker-dealers and investment advisers is long (like about 219 pages long), but one thing that jumps out is that the current disclosure environment isnâ™t working, at least when it comes to protecting investors.  Instead, the investing public is being overwhelmed by a blizzard of paperwork and theyâ™re just not reading it.  Donâ™t expect quick action on this, but thereâ™s got to be a better way!

STOP IT! ⓠThatâ™s the word from the IRS when it comes to taxpayers finding âœcreative uses❠for Section 529 college savings plan tax breaks.  The Service will be issuing regulations that prevent taxpayers from using Section 529 plans to avoid gift and generation-skipping transfer taxes, and expect those regulations to be retroactive.

GOT A GOOD STORY? ⓠThen the Life and Health Insurance Foundation for Education (LIFE) wants to hear from you. The organization is specifically looking for stories about how health insurance and critical illness insurance have helped clients.  More information is available at http://www.lifehappens.org/reallife.

HOUSING IS THE KEY ⓠOr so says Daniel Mudd, CEO of Fannie Mae. He believes that the economic stimulus package is a good start, but "the trouble that started with the housing market must also end with it.❠Many agree that the housing sector must be fixed before any stimulus plan will succeed.

MANY WORRIED, BUT NOT AFFECTED - An LA Times/Bloomberg poll finds Americans are more worried about the nation's fiscal health than they are about their own pocketbooks. While 79% of those surveyed are convinced a recession is likely within the year, about two-thirds also say they have yet to feel the effects of that forecast and rate their personal situation as âœsecure.â

MOST INVESTORS ARE âœSITTING TIGHT❠- Financial advisers report that most retail investors are sticking with their investment strategies in spite of the market declines. "You can tell they're nervous," said Annette Simon, principal of Garnet Group, "Many are already in retirement or are approaching it. Our counsel is to sit tight."

SUBPRIME LAWSUITS ⓠThe blame game has begun as to who is responsible for the subprime-related losses, and an onslaught of lawsuits is expected. The NYT says the legal issues will âœstretch across continents and regulatory jurisdictions, with an unprecedented complexity that will make unraveling the mess significantly more difficult.❠We say that, as usual, the losers will be stockholders in the targeted companies and the winners will be the attorneys and the executives in charge during the debacle.

HEALTH, EDUCATION COULD BUOY RECOVERY - BusinessWeek believes government spending on education and health could help stave off a recession. With baby boomers aging and student enrollments rising, those sectors created 640,000 new jobs in the last year alone and currently employ about 20% of the work force. Well, we suppose that is good, isnâ™t it?

LTCI IS EXPENSIVE ⓠReally? Compared to what?  Ask your clients to compare it to their homeowners, automobile and health insurance.  Or to the cost of assets they want to protect.