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February 15, 2009
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DONE DEAL
– Congress has given President Obama the biggest spending bill in
the history of the world...$789 billion. The economic stimulus bill has
four broad categories: tax breaks, investments in health care and
alternative energy, funding for "ready-to-go" infrastructure projects
and funds to aid state and local governments, including expanded
benefits for the unemployed. We're still awaiting details of
the
legislation. Will it work? We hope so, but who
knows!
Click here for the BusinessWeek
article, Stimulus:
How to Know If It's Working.
BANK-RESCUE
PLAN
- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner unveiled the Obama
administration's bank-rescue plan last week. Key points of
the
plan include "stress testing" the health of big banks, free up more
credit to consumers and businesses, combine public and private
financing to take "toxic" assets off banks' balance sheets and address
the housing crisis by reducing mortgage payments and establishing loan
modification guidelines. While markets fell sharply after the
announcement, many observers attribute that response to a lack of
details rather than opposition to the plan. Here are a
variety of
articles on the bank-rescue plan:
Geithner
unveils new bank rescue plan
4
Myths About the Obama-Geithner Bailout Plan
5
Things to Know About the Bank Bailout
Geithner
Defends Slow Rollout of Rescue Details
The
rise and (almost) fall of America's banks
(while this article doesn't deal directly with the bank bailout, it
provides perspective on why we need a bank bailout)
SIFMA
PRAISES RESCUE PLAN
– SIFMA says it and other financial industry groups are pleased
with the Obama administration's bank-rescue plan, although more details
would be helpful. "We are encouraged by the creative and wide-reaching
suite of programs outlined today," SIFMA CEO Tim Ryan said. The
association endorsed each point of the plan outlined by U.S. Treasury
Secretary Timothy Geithner.
$3,000,000,000,000
– AP reports that, “On a single day filled with staggering sums, the
Obama administration, Federal Reserve and Senate attacked the deepening
economic crisis with actions that could throw as much as $3 trillion
more in government and private funds into the fight against frozen
credit markets and rising joblessness.”
WHERE
DID ALL THE MONEY GO?
- That is what Congress wants to know from CEOs of Citigroup, Bank of
America, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of
New York and State Street. Only Citi has accounted for its Troubled
Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds but, of the $45 billion the company
has received in government aid, just $17.5 billion has gone toward
making new loans or extending existing credit lines. On a
somewhat positive note, Wells Fargo announced it would pay a $371.5
million dividend to the U.S. Treasury on its 25,000 shares of preferred
stock.
REGULATION
-
SEC credibility has been hammered by the Bernard Madoff ponzi scandal,
most recently in Congressional testimony from Harry Markopolos, a
former financial executive who over a period of years provided
information to the SEC about Madoff's scheme and was ignored.
Now
the pressure is on new SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro to reassure investors
that the agency will "reinvigorate the agency's policing of Wall
Street." She has her work cut out for her!
MORE ON
REGULATION
- It's safe to say that we'll be seeing changes in the nation's
financial regulatory system. It's not safe yet to predict
what
those changes might be. For some additional insight, click
here for the suggestions of former Fed chairman Paul
Volcker. Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein offers his
thoughts in a Financial
Times article.
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EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION CAP
- The plan to put a $500,000 cap on salaries for top executives at
companies that depend on government support is a great
idea...politically. However, there are downsides. Some say this sort of
constraint is likely to make bad companies worse and it beckons the
“who's next” question...your commissions? Although a
pay-cap plan would probably be counterproductive, there's also little
to be gained from defending multi-million-dollar pay packages in the
current anti-business environment. For another perspective
from Fortune,
click
here.
The main premise of this article is that corporate boards have become
more responsive to executives than to shareholders, "their true
masters."
INSURERS
HEALTH
– A. M. Best says that U.S. life/health insurers' ratings did
well in 2007, but 2008 brought a quick reversal of fortune. In 2008,
rating actions for the life/health industry were overwhelmingly
negative, with 43 rating downgrades vs. only 14 upgrades.
GOLDMAN
WANTS OUT
- Goldman Sachs wants to repay the $10.0 billion loan it received from
TARP as soon as possible. At least part of the reason is the
government's move to tighten control on how TARP recipients use their
handouts, including capping executive pay, year-end bonuses and perks.
TARP
INVESTMENTS?
- So far, TARP investments in AIG and others are not faring well. The
$40 million invested in AIG is performing most poorly, a report from a
watchdog panel says. The $40 billion invested Sept. 17, 2008 was worth
just $14.8 billion a month later. The $20 billion invested in Citigroup
was worth about $10 billion.
1,000
BANKS
– According to RBC Capital Markets, up to 1,000 banks could fail
in the U.S. over the next three to five years due to continuing losses
from commercial real estate loans. That won't be a good thing.
CORPORATE
DEBT DEFAULTS
- U.S. life insurers may experience more losses on securities related
to subprime, Alt-A and commercial mortgages. Additionally, the
worsening recession could lead to a large jump in the number of
corporate defaults.
EU
CRISIS?
- National leaders and European Union officials share fears
that
a second bank bail-out in Europe will raise government borrowing at a
time when investors - particularly those who lend money to European
governments - have growing doubts over the ability of countries such as
Spain, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Britain to pay it back. The
EU is deeply worried at widening spreads on bonds sold by different
European countries.
TRADE
DEFICIT LOWEST IN 6 YEARS
- The Commerce Department said that the trade deficit in December fell
4% to $39.9 billion, from $41.6 billion in November. For the year, the
deficit shrank by 3.3% to $677.1 billion. It was the second straight
annual decline after five straight years of record deficits.
RELIEF
VIA FANNIE/FREDDIE
- A mortgage-relief plan being developed by the Obama administration
would rely on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to ease payments on mortgages
facing delinquency. The administration hopes private Wall Street
lenders will model their own relief plans on the Fannie/Freddie
program.
TARP
FOR INSURERS
- Some insurance companies received approval and acquired
banks,
hoping to participate in the government's $250 billion capital
injection program, which is part of the larger bailout fund. The
Treasury Department quashed their hopes, however, announcing that "only
federally regulated financial institutions will be eligible for the
Treasury Department's Capital Purchase Program." Instead,
insurers will be allowed to participate in the portion of the
bank-rescue plan that will allow financial institutions to sell "toxic"
assets to the private market with government guarantees.
MORE
BAD LOANS ON THE WAY
– As previously reported, concerns are shifting from subprime
loans to "Alt-A" mortgages as they sour at an alarming pace. While
credit-rating agencies play catch-up to the dismal reality, bankers are
realizing that more trouble may be on the horizon. With U.S.
unemployment heading toward 8%, even more loans, including prime
mortgages, are expected to go bad.
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COBRA
SUBSIDY
- Reports are that a COBRA subsidy provision remains part of the
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, although not as generous as in
the initial House bill. Unemployed workers who qualify would
have
60% of their COBRA premiums paid for nine months. Individuals
with incomes over $125,000 and married couples with incomes over
$250,000 will not be eligible for the subsidy.
NEW
REVERSE MORTGAGE RULES
- Recent changes in a federal loan program may make reverse mortgages
attractive to millions more senior homeowners by raising the dollar
value of homes that qualify for the program and extending it to the
purchase of new homes. The Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM)
allows consumers to pay a one-time insurance premium, which guarantees
that they'll receive the stream of income they are promised when
executing the reverse mortgage. AARP has extensive reverse
mortgage information.
ChFC
REQUIREMENTS
- Applicants starting the chartered financial consultant program on or
after October 1 will have to meet additional requirements, including a
comprehensive case analysis course. More information is
available
at www.theamericancollege.edu.
SURVIVOR
NEEDS
- According to a new Life Insurance Gap study by New York Life, there
is a significant difference between Americans' financial expectations
and their actual amount of life insurance protection.
Americans
have just 49% of the financial protection necessary to safely cover
their self-described financial goals for themselves and their families.
How do you show the “Gap?” Here is a sample Survivor
Income Needs Analysis from The Virtual Assistant
available for no more than $21.95 per month.
OVERLOOKED
TAX DEDUCTIONS - Click
here for Kiplinger's 11 most overlooked tax
deductions.
WIREHOUSE
EXITS
– Industry observers are predicting a large migration of low
producers from the wirehouses this year. While brokers at all
production levels have been leaving to escape the turmoil at the big
firms, cuts in pay for less productive brokers are expected to force
out many representatives who produce less than $300,000. Some veteran
brokers doing less than $300,000 are getting 20% or 25% of what they
produce. Many of these reps had been getting 30% or more of their
revenue.
TOP
1,000 ADVISORS – Check out this list from Barron's
to see if you made the grade!
TOP 25
WHO WILL AFFECT YOUR FINANCES
- Who are the folks who might make things better, or even worse? Who
are the people who will move markets this year, up or down? To help you
keep track of these "market movers," U.S. News & World Report
compiled
a list, so if things do improve, you'll know who to credit.
And if they don't, you'll know who to blame.
B OF A
EMPLOYEES FILE SUIT
- Employees of Bank of America have filed a class action suit against
their employer and other 401(k) fiduciaries, claiming they were misled
about the bank's recent purchase of Merrill Lynch. The suit says the
acquisition led to dramatic losses in the value of employee retirement
funds. It also claims that executives within the company repeatedly
told employees that everything was fine.
BUSINESS
OWNERS LESS CONCERNED
- According to PayCycle, small business owners may be less worried
about the economy today than three months ago. A recent survey of 500
small business owners indicates that 39% said they were "very worried"
about the economy, compared to 56% in mid-October. However, 58% of
small business owners think the recovery will take another 12 to 18
months – up from 50% in the earlier survey.
INSURE
YOUR LOVE
- The Life and Health Insurance Foundation for Education (LIFE) is
launching a campaign to position life insurance as the perfect
Valentine’s Day gift. The “Insure Your Love” campaign
includes print ads in magazines such as People, a television media tour
in 10 large markets, a Web movie entitled “You Do It For
Love,” and a Selfless Love contest. See details at http://www.lifehappens.org.
STAMPS
UP -
The U.S. Postal Service announced Tuesday that the price of a
first-class stamp will rise to 44 cents on May 11. The new 44-cent rate
covers the first ounce of first-class mail, the price for each
additional ounce will remain unchanged at 17-cents.
APPS
DOWN -
The MIB reports 4.3% fewer individually underwritten life insurance
applications in January than they checked in the comparable month a
year earlier. Application volume was down 7.8% for ages 0 to 44, but
was up 7.8% for applicants ages 60 and older.
AMERICANS
WERE NOT SAVING
- "Before the crisis, people weren't saving. The U.S. was in
a
negative savings rate. People were and are still woefully unprepared
for retirement." No question that people need to save more but the
Catch 22 is that we need to spend to fuel a recovery.
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