US FlagFebruary 15, 2009 Edition




DONE DEAL – Congress has given President Obama the biggest spending bill in the history of the world...$789 billion. The economic stimulus bill has four broad categories: tax breaks, investments in health care and alternative energy, funding for "ready-to-go" infrastructure projects and funds to aid state and local governments, including expanded benefits for the unemployed.  We're still awaiting details of the legislation.  Will it work?  We hope so, but who knows!  Click here for the BusinessWeek article, Stimulus: How to Know If It's Working.  

BANK-RESCUE PLAN - Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner unveiled the Obama administration's bank-rescue plan last week.  Key points of the plan include "stress testing" the health of big banks, free up more credit to consumers and businesses, combine public and private financing to take "toxic" assets off banks' balance sheets and address the housing crisis by reducing mortgage payments and establishing loan modification guidelines.  While markets fell sharply after the announcement, many observers attribute that response to a lack of details rather than opposition to the plan.  Here are a variety of articles on the bank-rescue plan:
Geithner unveils new bank rescue plan 
4 Myths About the Obama-Geithner Bailout Plan  
5 Things to Know About the Bank Bailout  
Geithner Defends Slow Rollout of Rescue Details  
The rise and (almost) fall of America's banks (while this article doesn't deal directly with the bank bailout, it provides perspective on why we need a bank bailout)  
 
SIFMA PRAISES RESCUE PLAN – SIFMA says it and other financial industry groups are pleased with the Obama administration's bank-rescue plan, although more details would be helpful. "We are encouraged by the creative and wide-reaching suite of programs outlined today," SIFMA CEO Tim Ryan said. The association endorsed each point of the plan outlined by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

$3,000,000,000,000 – AP reports that, “On a single day filled with staggering sums, the Obama administration, Federal Reserve and Senate attacked the deepening economic crisis with actions that could throw as much as $3 trillion more in government and private funds into the fight against frozen credit markets and rising joblessness.”

WHERE DID ALL THE MONEY GO? - That is what Congress wants to know from CEOs of Citigroup, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York and State Street. Only Citi has accounted for its Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds but, of the $45 billion the company has received in government aid, just $17.5 billion has gone toward making new loans or extending existing credit lines.  On a somewhat positive note, Wells Fargo announced it would pay a $371.5 million dividend to the U.S. Treasury on its 25,000 shares of preferred stock.

REGULATION - SEC credibility has been hammered by the Bernard Madoff ponzi scandal, most recently in Congressional testimony from Harry Markopolos, a former financial executive who over a period of years provided information to the SEC about Madoff's scheme and was ignored.  Now the pressure is on new SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro to reassure investors that the agency will "reinvigorate the agency's policing of Wall Street."  She has her work cut out for her!

MORE ON REGULATION - It's safe to say that we'll be seeing changes in the nation's financial regulatory system.  It's not safe yet to predict what those changes might be.  For some additional insight, click here for the suggestions of former Fed chairman Paul Volcker.  Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein offers his thoughts in a Financial Times article





EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION CAP - The plan to put a $500,000 cap on salaries for top executives at companies that depend on government support is a great idea...politically. However, there are downsides. Some say this sort of constraint is likely to make bad companies worse and it beckons the “who's next” question...your commissions? Although a pay-cap plan would probably be counterproductive, there's also little to be gained from defending multi-million-dollar pay packages in the current anti-business environment.  For another perspective from Fortune, click here.  The main premise of this article is that corporate boards have become more responsive to executives than to shareholders, "their true masters."  

INSURERS HEALTH – A. M. Best says that U.S. life/health insurers' ratings did well in 2007, but 2008 brought a quick reversal of fortune. In 2008, rating actions for the life/health industry were overwhelmingly negative, with 43 rating downgrades vs. only 14 upgrades.

GOLDMAN WANTS OUT - Goldman Sachs wants to repay the $10.0 billion loan it received from TARP as soon as possible. At least part of the reason is the government's move to tighten control on how TARP recipients use their handouts, including capping executive pay, year-end bonuses and perks.

TARP INVESTMENTS? - So far, TARP investments in AIG and others are not faring well. The $40 million invested in AIG is performing most poorly, a report from a watchdog panel says. The $40 billion invested Sept. 17, 2008 was worth just $14.8 billion a month later. The $20 billion invested in Citigroup was worth about $10 billion.

1,000 BANKS – According to RBC Capital Markets, up to 1,000 banks could fail in the U.S. over the next three to five years due to continuing losses from commercial real estate loans. That won't be a good thing.

CORPORATE DEBT DEFAULTS - U.S. life insurers may experience more losses on securities related to subprime, Alt-A and commercial mortgages. Additionally, the worsening recession could lead to a large jump in the number of corporate defaults.

EU CRISIS? -  National leaders and European Union officials share fears that a second bank bail-out in Europe will raise government borrowing at a time when investors - particularly those who lend money to European governments - have growing doubts over the ability of countries such as Spain, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Britain to pay it back. The EU is deeply worried at widening spreads on bonds sold by different European countries.

TRADE DEFICIT LOWEST IN 6 YEARS - The Commerce Department said that the trade deficit in December fell 4% to $39.9 billion, from $41.6 billion in November. For the year, the deficit shrank by 3.3% to $677.1 billion. It was the second straight annual decline after five straight years of record deficits.

RELIEF VIA FANNIE/FREDDIE - A mortgage-relief plan being developed by the Obama administration would rely on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to ease payments on mortgages facing delinquency. The administration hopes private Wall Street lenders will model their own relief plans on the Fannie/Freddie program. 

TARP FOR INSURERS - Some insurance companies received approval and acquired banks, hoping to participate in the government's $250 billion capital injection program, which is part of the larger bailout fund. The Treasury Department quashed their hopes, however, announcing that "only federally regulated financial institutions will be eligible for the Treasury Department's Capital Purchase Program."  Instead, insurers will be allowed to participate in the portion of the bank-rescue plan that will allow financial institutions to sell "toxic" assets to the private market with government guarantees.

MORE BAD LOANS ON THE WAY – As previously reported, concerns are shifting from subprime loans to "Alt-A" mortgages as they sour at an alarming pace. While credit-rating agencies play catch-up to the dismal reality, bankers are realizing that more trouble may be on the horizon. With U.S. unemployment heading toward 8%, even more loans, including prime mortgages, are expected to go bad.


COBRA SUBSIDY - Reports are that a COBRA subsidy provision remains part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, although not as generous as in the initial House bill.  Unemployed workers who qualify would have 60% of their COBRA premiums paid for nine months.  Individuals with incomes over $125,000 and married couples with incomes over $250,000 will not be eligible for the subsidy.

NEW REVERSE MORTGAGE RULES - Recent changes in a federal loan program may make reverse mortgages attractive to millions more senior homeowners by raising the dollar value of homes that qualify for the program and extending it to the purchase of new homes. The Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) allows consumers to pay a one-time insurance premium, which guarantees that they'll receive the stream of income they are promised when executing the reverse mortgage. AARP has extensive reverse mortgage information.

ChFC REQUIREMENTS - Applicants starting the chartered financial consultant program on or after October 1 will have to meet additional requirements, including a comprehensive case analysis course.  More information is available at www.theamericancollege.edu.  

SURVIVOR NEEDS - According to a new Life Insurance Gap study by New York Life, there is a significant difference between Americans' financial expectations and their actual amount of life insurance protection.  Americans have just 49% of the financial protection necessary to safely cover their self-described financial goals for themselves and their families. How do you show the “Gap?” Here is a sample Survivor Income Needs Analysis from The Virtual Assistant available for no more than $21.95 per month.  

OVERLOOKED TAX DEDUCTIONS - Click here for Kiplinger's 11 most overlooked tax deductions. 

WIREHOUSE EXITS – Industry observers are predicting a large migration of low producers from the wirehouses this year. While brokers at all production levels have been leaving to escape the turmoil at the big firms, cuts in pay for less productive brokers are expected to force out many representatives who produce less than $300,000. Some veteran brokers doing less than $300,000 are getting 20% or 25% of what they produce. Many of these reps had been getting 30% or more of their revenue.

TOP 1,000 ADVISORS – Check out this list from Barron's to see if you made the grade!

TOP 25 WHO WILL AFFECT YOUR FINANCES - Who are the folks who might make things better, or even worse? Who are the people who will move markets this year, up or down? To help you keep track of these "market movers," U.S. News & World Report compiled a list, so if things do improve, you'll know who to credit. And if they don't, you'll know who to blame. 

B OF A EMPLOYEES FILE SUIT - Employees of Bank of America have filed a class action suit against their employer and other 401(k) fiduciaries, claiming they were misled about the bank's recent purchase of Merrill Lynch. The suit says the acquisition led to dramatic losses in the value of employee retirement funds. It also claims that executives within the company repeatedly told employees that everything was fine.

BUSINESS OWNERS LESS CONCERNED - According to PayCycle, small business owners may be less worried about the economy today than three months ago. A recent survey of 500 small business owners indicates that 39% said they were "very worried" about the economy, compared to 56% in mid-October. However, 58% of small business owners think the recovery will take another 12 to 18 months – up from 50% in the earlier survey.

INSURE YOUR LOVE - The Life and Health Insurance Foundation for Education (LIFE) is launching a campaign to position life insurance as the perfect Valentine’s Day gift. The “Insure Your Love” campaign includes print ads in magazines such as People, a television media tour in 10 large markets, a Web movie entitled “You Do It For Love,” and a Selfless Love contest. See details at  http://www.lifehappens.org.

STAMPS UP - The U.S. Postal Service announced Tuesday that the price of a first-class stamp will rise to 44 cents on May 11. The new 44-cent rate covers the first ounce of first-class mail, the price for each additional ounce will remain unchanged at 17-cents. 

APPS DOWN - The MIB reports 4.3% fewer individually underwritten life insurance applications in January than they checked in the comparable month a year earlier. Application volume was down 7.8% for ages 0 to 44, but was up 7.8% for applicants ages 60 and older.

AMERICANS WERE NOT SAVING - "Before the crisis, people weren't saving.  The U.S. was in a negative savings rate. People were and are still woefully unprepared for retirement." No question that people need to save more but the Catch 22 is that we need to spend to fuel a recovery.