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ECONOMY SINKS AGAIN - The economy sank at a 5.7% pace as the brute force of the recession carried over into the start of the year. However, many analysts believe activity isn't shrinking nearly as much now as the downturn flashes signs of letting up. It marked the second straight quarter where the economy took a huge tumble. At the end of last year, the economy shrank at a staggering 6.3% pace, the most in a quarter-century.

MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES UP - Mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures increased to record levels not seen since 1972 and home-loan rates jumped as the government's effort to fix the housing slump lost momentum. The administration's efforts to keep homeowners current on mortgages by allowing them to refinance or sell to buyers enticed by affordable terms is apparently being undermined by job losses. "If people don't have a paycheck, they can't support a mortgage. The longer the recession lasts the more people run through their savings reserves. One in every eight Americans is now late on a payment or already in foreclosure.

RECESSION OVER SOON – A survey by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) indicates the recession will likely end soon, but the recovery will be more moderate than is typical following a severe downturn. When it comes to job losses and home prices, however, expect a slower recovery.  Recoveries typically look like a V, with the recovery bounce back mirroring the fall.  As illustrated above, with the current economic downturn, we may be looking at a U, with the economy experiencing a longer bottoming out before recovering. Some economists, however, are predicting a W recovery, meaning that the economy may go up and down before resuming its course of growth.  The wild card here is inflation.  If the economy rebounds, but inflation also goes up, the Fed will need to fight inflation which may, in turn, dampen growth and lead to a second dip.

HYPERINFLATION – Investor Marc Farber believes the U.S. economy will enter "hyperinflation" approaching the levels in Zimbabwe because the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to raise interest rates. "I am 100 percent sure that the U.S. will go into hyperinflation. The problem with government debt growing so much is that when the time will come and the Fed should increase interest rates, they will be very reluctant to do so and so inflation will start to accelerate." Let's hope this guy is a nut because Zimbabwe's inflation rate reached 231 million percent in July, the last annual rate published by the statistics office. Did we mention that Faber is the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report?

NO RISK OF INFLATION - Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher says there is no sign of a problem with U.S. inflation at the moment. "I don't think that's the risk right now. Price increases are less and less. Ex-energy, ex-food, ex-tobacco you've got some mild deflation here and no inflation in the (broader) headline index."
 
HOME SALES - New home sales fell 34% since April 2008.  However existing home sales rose 2.9% as foreclosure auctions enticed bargain hunters. The median price slumped 15% from a year earlier, the second-biggest drop on record, and distressed properties accounted for 45% of all sales. "We clearly haven't hit the top yet in terms of delinquencies or the bottom of the housing market."

GM BANKRUPTCY - General Motors filed for bankruptcy early on June 1.  The company, which has already received about $20 billion in federal money, will receive an additional $30 billion to fund operations during its reorganization.  In return, taxpayers will own 60% of GM, with the UAW union, creditors/bondholders and federal and provincial governments in Canada owning the remainder of the company.  Current owners of GM shares will have their investments wiped out.  A reorganized GM could result in the loss of 100,000 plus jobs from plant and dealership closures.  Retirees and their families will see cutbacks in their health insurance coverage, but their pensions are safe, for now anyway.  It's expected that a "new GM," consisting of the Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC and Buick brands plus certain successful overseas operations, will emerge quickly from bankruptcy.  What's left will comprise the "old GM," which will need to be disposed of.  The bankruptcy filing also caused GM's removal from the Dow Jones industrial average.  Effective June 8, GM will be replaced by Cisco Systems and Citigroup, which has also been removed from the Dow, will be replaced by Travelers.




CALIFORNIA SCREAMING - Things are going to get nasty quickly in California as the state seeks more funds from its cash-strapped cities and counties to close a $21 billion state budget deficit. Many municipalities are seeking bankruptcy protection and some state legislators are pushing a plan that would require a California municipality seeking bankruptcy protection to first obtain approval from a state commission. The cities are claiming that contracts with police and firefighters are pushing them into bankruptcy. Check out SaveYourCity.net to see how the cities are fighting back. 

CALIFORNIA DRILLING – With all due apologizes to our California readers, what is wrong with the Governator and the state legislators? The California coast is said to have gas and oil reserves in excess of the Gulf Coast, which supplies 25% of the nation's oil. Need money?  Need jobs?

NOT ALONE - According to a report, California is one of 47 states facing budget gaps, with a collective shortfall of $350 billion. 

OVERSIGHT REFORM – The Wall Street Journal reports that the administration is considering whether it bit off more than it can chew with its broad proposal of overhauling financial regulation and might scale back. Specifically, officials are looking into whether to reorganize the regulatory framework or simply implement new rules at existing regulatory agencies.

CAP AND TRADE AND JOBS – Everyone wants a cleaner environment and everyone wants a booming economy. Last week, the House Energy and Commerce Committee approved a bill that's being marketed as a way to give us a "better" environment, but the legislation is likely to inflict tremendous economic pain for no discernible environmental gain. The bill would do two things: 1) force companies to make more energy efficient (and far more expensive) products, and 2) create a cap-and-trade system that serves as a massive tax on fossil fuels. Cap-and-trade forces businesses and consumers to either use less fossil-fuel based energy or buy credits from businesses that do. It would give immense power to unelected bureaucrats who would be in charge of deciding how much carbon certain industries would be allowed to emit. Some predict a loss of over 1,000,000 jobs. We can't afford to try to cool the planet by icing our economy. 

LIFE INSURERS STRONG - Attorneys at Edwards, Angell, Palmer and Dodge believe that despite speculation to the contrary, life insurers are better poised to withstand the current economy than other financial institutions. In fact, well-capitalized insurers that have been able to withstand an economic downturn may find themselves even more appealing to consumers than in the previous decade, when consumers did more comparison shopping based on price.

LIFE INSURERS WEAK - A.M. Best reports ten life/health and annuity insurers became "financially impaired" since January 2008. At least two of the financially impaired companies (Standard Life and Shenandoah Life) were related directly to the subprime crisis. Most of the others were accident and health insurers whose reserves and capital were stressed by inadequate pricing, higher-than-expected claims and expenses.

INSURERS' CURRENT FOCUS – A survey by Insurance Asset Outsourcing Exchange found that 56% of insurers view business growth/retention as critical, 53% are trying to strengthen risk management and 35% are changing their investment policies and guidelines.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE HIGH - The Conference Board's index of consumer attitudes soared to 54.9 in May from a revised 40.8 in April, marking the largest increase for a single month since April 2003.

BLAME GAME...MBAs? – Many are pointing toward MBAs and the business schools from which they graduated as major culprits in the current financial crisis and it is easy to see why. Many of the players in high finance are graduates of the likes of NYU Stern School of Business and Harvard Business School and other Ivy League business schools. These young executives learned in the 1970s that a fortune could be made by boosting shareholder returns in the short-term and became exceedingly rich doing so.  Unfortunately, these actions would ultimately destroy their companies and deal a body blow to the world economy. Whether, and to what extent, the nation's business schools laid the groundwork for the economic crisis is a serious topic for educators to ponder.


HEALTH CARE REFORM - The cost of health care in the United States is fueling much of the reform movement.  Here's a recap of current news on the topic:
  • Soaring Costs Raise Stakes for U.S. Healthcare Revamp - Dramatic increases in the cost of health care in the U.S. are behind an increasing urgency to revamp the system.  Without reform, the number of uninsured Americans will continue to increase, with middle income Americans joining the uninsured.  
  • U.S. Workers Paying More for Healthcare - According to a Milliman report, "Healthcare costs for Americans who get medical coverage through an employer hit a record $16,771 per family this year, and they are having to pay more themselves."  
  • Health-Care Costs Handcuff Entrepreneurs - "Countless workers in the United States are trapped in jobs they would like to leave because they cannot get health insurance elsewhere, calcifying innovation and mobility in the world's largest economy."  
  • FACTBOX: Healthcare in the United States - Facts about the cost of health care in the U.S.  
HOW TO PAY FOR IT - Here, of course, is where the "rubber meets the road."  It looks like the Senate Finance Committee will take the lead on developing strategies to pay for health care reform.  Possibilities include:
  • Limiting the income tax exclusion on employer-provided health care coverage.
  • Either repealing the itemized deduction for medical expenses or raising the floor from 7.5% of adjusted gross income so fewer taxpayers can claim it.
  • Curbing HSAs and FSAs.
  • Requiring all state and local government employees to pay the Medicare tax.
  • Clamping down on nonprofit hospitals.
  • Hiking the tax on alcoholic beverages.
  • Imposing a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages.
VAT TAX – The Administration has launched a trial balloon for a new national Value-Added Tax (VAT) to pay for health care. Ezekiel Emanuel, whose book on health care uses a VAT to fund the new government program and brother of White House chief-of-staff Rahm Emanuel, has been hired by the White House budget office to help design the health care plan.

NAIFA JOINS HEALTH FRAY - "Since 1990, NAIFA has relied on our conference members at AHIA-NAIFA Health and Employee Benefits to represent all of NAIFA in the discussions of health care reform across the nation. The national debate on health care reform affects all members of NAIFA, and health and employee benefits advocacy should be afforded to all NAIFA members."   Read the press release at naifa.com.

MEDICARE AND $500 BILLION - UnitedHealth says the government can save $500 billion by reducing unnecessary care in Medicare, like sending patients to less expensive, more efficient doctors, reducing hospital visits by the elderly and cutting unnecessary care. Those are among 15 suggestions made by the health management company that is the biggest participant in the government's Medicare insurance program for the elderly. Like other groups with an interest in the outcome, United is trying to position itself as a constructive voice in the debate and avoid becoming a target itself.  

HEALTH LESSONS FROM EUROPE - Time Magazine reviews a number of European health care systems, identifying features the U.S. may want to consider as we revamp our health care system.  

2009 HSA LIMITS - Unless changed by possible health care legislation, the deductible contributions to health savings accounts will increase to $6,150 for family coverage in 2010 (up from $5,950 in 2009) and to $3,050 for individual coverage (up from $3,000 in 2009).  The 2010 minimum high-deductible health plan deductible amount increases to $2,400 for families and $1,200 for individuals, up from $2,300 and $1,150 in 2009.  Finally, the cap on out-of-pocket costs in 2010 increases to $11,900 for families and $5,950 for individuals, up from $11,600 and $5,800 this year.

ADVISOR CHECK - A new website, AdvisorCheck, provides a free online service "meant to allow consumers to investigate the professional background of financial advisers."  

MUTUAL FUNDS UNDER SCRUTINY - As reform of the financial services industry continues to evolve, you can expect that all financial vehicles will receive closer scrutiny...including mutual funds, variable annuities, variable life and, yes, indexed products. Let's just hope that regulators will not react to the likes of Bernie Madoff and others to the point of strangling the sales of the vast majority of honest financial advisors.

CREDIT CARD LOSERS - The new credit card bill will hurt an industry that was nickel-and-diming its cardholders, but isn't panacea to recession-battered consumers. "Issuers have taken a body blow. They have to make up some of this lost revenue. They are for-profit companies and their shareholders expect it." One way to boost the banks' profit is to charge interest from the time of the charge rather on the balance after the statement due date. If you currently carry no credit card balances, expect to pay interest soon.  Click here for more information on how the new credit card rules may affect you and here for a summary of benefits from the Credit CARD Act of 2009.    

RETIREMENT CRISIS - "Our nation's system of retirement security is imperiled, headed for a serious train wreck. That wreck is not merely waiting to happen; we are running on a dangerous track that is leading directly to a serious crash that will disable major parts of our retirement system." If, several years before the financial and credit crisis hit, someone had told you that the housing market was preposterously overvalued and derivatives were headed for cataclysm, would it have been worth paying attention to? Now there's another crisis building and, as is often the case with gathering storms, most of us are doing our best to ignore the warning signs.

EARLY SOCIAL SECURITY - The Social Security Administration had been expecting a 15% increase in applications this year due to aging baby boomers.  Instead, they're seeing a 25% increase and speculation is that the increase has been caused by the recession.  Laid-off workers may be signing up for Social Security beginning at age 62 as an immediate source of income.  Unfortunately, while the income is immediate, the reduction in their benefits will last a lifetime.

DON'T DUMP UNDER-PERFORMING FUNDS - Fund managers are urging financial advisers not to pull client assets out of under-performing funds because last year was an anomaly. They contend that 2008 was and "extreme" bear market and short term results during such financial times should not be the only criteria for judging the value of professional fund management.

INDEX ANNUITY SALES UP – According to AnnuitySpecs.com, index annuity sales rose 22.8% year-over-year. However, their survey found that despite recent success among index annuities, 13 insurers have pulled out of the market due to pricing concerns.