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June 1, 2009
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ECONOMY SINKS AGAIN
- The economy sank at a 5.7% pace as the brute force of the recession
carried over into the start of the year. However, many analysts believe
activity isn't shrinking nearly as much now as the downturn flashes
signs of letting up. It marked the second straight quarter where the
economy took a huge tumble. At the end of last year, the economy shrank
at a staggering 6.3% pace, the most in a quarter-century.
MORTGAGE
DELINQUENCIES UP
- Mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures increased to record levels
not seen since 1972 and home-loan rates jumped as the government's
effort to fix the housing slump lost momentum. The administration's
efforts to keep homeowners current on mortgages by allowing them to
refinance or sell to buyers enticed by affordable terms is apparently
being undermined by job losses. "If people don't have a paycheck, they
can't support a mortgage. The longer the recession lasts the more
people run through their savings reserves. One in every eight Americans
is now late on a payment or already in foreclosure.
RECESSION
OVER SOON –
A survey by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE)
indicates the recession will likely end soon, but the recovery will be
more moderate than is typical following a severe downturn. When it
comes to job losses and home prices, however, expect a slower
recovery. Recoveries typically look like a V, with the
recovery
bounce back mirroring the fall. As illustrated above, with
the
current economic downturn, we may be looking at a U, with the economy
experiencing a longer bottoming out before recovering. Some economists,
however, are predicting a W recovery, meaning that the economy may go
up and down before resuming its course of growth. The wild
card
here is inflation. If the economy rebounds, but inflation
also
goes up, the Fed will need to fight inflation which may, in turn,
dampen growth and lead to a second dip.
HYPERINFLATION
– Investor Marc Farber believes the U.S. economy will enter
"hyperinflation" approaching the levels in Zimbabwe because the Federal
Reserve will be reluctant to raise interest rates. "I am 100 percent
sure that the U.S. will go into hyperinflation. The problem with
government debt growing so much is that when the time will come and the
Fed should increase interest rates, they will be very reluctant to do
so and so inflation will start to accelerate." Let's hope this guy is a
nut because Zimbabwe's inflation rate reached 231 million percent in
July, the last annual rate published by the statistics office. Did we
mention that Faber is the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom
report?
NO RISK
OF INFLATION
- Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher says there is no sign
of a problem with U.S. inflation at the moment. "I don't think that's
the risk right now. Price increases are less and less. Ex-energy,
ex-food, ex-tobacco you've got some mild deflation here and no
inflation in the (broader) headline index."
HOME
SALES -
New home sales fell 34% since April 2008. However existing
home
sales rose 2.9% as foreclosure auctions enticed bargain hunters. The
median price slumped 15% from a year earlier, the second-biggest drop
on record, and distressed properties accounted for 45% of all sales.
"We clearly haven't hit the top yet in terms of delinquencies or the
bottom of the housing market."
GM BANKRUPTCY
- General Motors filed for bankruptcy early on June 1. The
company,
which has already received about $20 billion in federal money, will
receive an additional $30 billion to fund operations during its
reorganization. In return, taxpayers will own 60% of GM, with
the UAW
union, creditors/bondholders and federal and provincial governments in
Canada owning the remainder of the company. Current owners of
GM
shares will have their investments wiped out. A reorganized
GM could
result in the loss of 100,000 plus jobs from plant and dealership
closures. Retirees and their families will see cutbacks in
their
health insurance coverage, but their pensions are safe, for now
anyway. It's expected that a "new GM," consisting of the
Chevrolet,
Cadillac, GMC and Buick brands plus certain successful overseas
operations, will emerge quickly from bankruptcy. What's left
will
comprise the "old GM," which will need to be disposed of. The
bankruptcy filing also caused GM's removal from the Dow Jones
industrial average. Effective June 8, GM will be replaced by
Cisco
Systems and Citigroup, which has also been removed from the Dow, will
be replaced by Travelers.
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CALIFORNIA SCREAMING
- Things are going to get nasty quickly in California as the state
seeks more funds from its cash-strapped cities and counties to close a
$21 billion state budget deficit. Many municipalities are seeking
bankruptcy protection and some state legislators are pushing a plan
that would require a California municipality seeking bankruptcy
protection to first obtain approval from a state commission. The cities
are claiming that contracts with police and firefighters are pushing
them into bankruptcy. Check out SaveYourCity.net
to see how the cities are fighting back.
CALIFORNIA
DRILLING
– With all due apologizes to our California readers, what is
wrong with the Governator and the state legislators? The California
coast is said to have gas and oil reserves in excess of the Gulf Coast,
which supplies 25% of the nation's oil. Need money? Need jobs?
NOT
ALONE - According to a report, California is one of 47
states facing budget gaps, with a collective shortfall of $350
billion.
OVERSIGHT
REFORM
– The Wall Street Journal reports that the administration is
considering whether it bit off more than it can chew with its broad
proposal of overhauling financial regulation and might scale back.
Specifically, officials are looking into whether to reorganize the
regulatory framework or simply implement new rules at existing
regulatory agencies.
CAP AND
TRADE AND JOBS
– Everyone wants a cleaner environment and everyone wants a
booming economy. Last week, the House Energy and Commerce Committee
approved a bill that's being marketed as a way to give us a "better"
environment, but the legislation is likely to inflict tremendous
economic pain for no discernible environmental gain. The bill would do
two things: 1) force companies to make more energy efficient (and far
more expensive) products, and 2) create a cap-and-trade system that
serves as a massive tax on fossil fuels. Cap-and-trade forces
businesses and consumers to either use less fossil-fuel based energy or
buy credits from businesses that do. It would give immense power to
unelected bureaucrats who would be in charge of deciding how much
carbon certain industries would be allowed to emit. Some predict a loss
of over 1,000,000 jobs. We can't afford to try to cool the planet by
icing our economy.
LIFE
INSURERS STRONG
- Attorneys at Edwards, Angell, Palmer and Dodge believe that despite
speculation to the contrary, life insurers are better poised to
withstand the current economy than other financial institutions. In
fact, well-capitalized insurers that have been able to withstand an
economic downturn may find themselves even more appealing to consumers
than in the previous decade, when consumers did more comparison
shopping based on price.
LIFE
INSURERS WEAK
- A.M. Best reports ten life/health and annuity insurers became
"financially impaired" since January 2008. At least two of the
financially impaired companies (Standard Life and Shenandoah Life) were
related directly to the subprime crisis. Most of the others were
accident and health insurers whose reserves and capital were stressed
by inadequate pricing, higher-than-expected claims and expenses.
INSURERS'
CURRENT FOCUS
– A survey by Insurance Asset Outsourcing Exchange found that 56%
of insurers view business growth/retention as critical, 53% are trying
to strengthen risk management and 35% are changing their investment
policies and guidelines.
CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE HIGH
- The Conference Board's index of consumer attitudes soared to 54.9 in
May from a revised 40.8 in April, marking the largest increase for a
single month since April 2003.
BLAME
GAME...MBAs?
– Many are pointing toward MBAs and the business schools from
which they graduated as major culprits in the current financial crisis
and it is easy to see why. Many of the players in high finance are
graduates of the likes of NYU Stern School of Business and Harvard
Business School and other Ivy League business schools. These young
executives learned in the 1970s that a fortune could be made by
boosting shareholder returns in the short-term and became exceedingly
rich doing so. Unfortunately, these actions would ultimately
destroy their companies and deal a body blow to the world economy.
Whether, and to what extent, the nation's business schools laid the
groundwork for the economic crisis is a serious topic for educators to
ponder.
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HEALTH
CARE REFORM
- The cost of health care in the United States is fueling much of the
reform movement. Here's a recap of current news on the topic:
- Soaring
Costs Raise Stakes for U.S. Healthcare Revamp
- Dramatic increases in the cost of health care in the U.S. are behind
an increasing urgency to revamp the system. Without reform,
the
number of uninsured Americans will continue to increase, with middle
income Americans joining the uninsured.
- U.S.
Workers Paying More for Healthcare
- According to a Milliman report, "Healthcare costs for Americans who
get medical coverage through an employer hit a record $16,771 per
family this year, and they are having to pay more
themselves."
- Health-Care
Costs Handcuff Entrepreneurs
- "Countless workers in the United States are trapped in jobs they
would like to leave because they cannot get health insurance elsewhere,
calcifying innovation and mobility in the world's largest
economy."
- FACTBOX:
Healthcare in the United States - Facts about the cost of
health care in the U.S.
HOW
TO PAY FOR IT -
Here, of course, is where the "rubber meets the road." It
looks
like the Senate Finance Committee will take the lead on developing
strategies to pay for health care reform. Possibilities
include:
- Limiting the income tax exclusion on
employer-provided health care coverage.
- Either
repealing the itemized deduction for medical expenses or raising the
floor from 7.5% of adjusted gross income so fewer taxpayers can claim
it.
- Curbing HSAs and FSAs.
- Requiring all state and local government employees
to pay the Medicare tax.
- Clamping down on nonprofit hospitals.
- Hiking the tax on alcoholic beverages.
- Imposing a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages.
VAT
TAX
– The Administration has launched a trial balloon for a new
national Value-Added Tax (VAT) to pay for health care. Ezekiel Emanuel,
whose book on health care uses a VAT to fund the new government program
and brother of White House chief-of-staff Rahm Emanuel, has been hired
by the White House budget office to help design the health care plan.
NAIFA
JOINS HEALTH FRAY
- "Since 1990, NAIFA has relied on our conference members at AHIA-NAIFA
Health and Employee Benefits to represent all of NAIFA in the
discussions of health care reform across the nation. The national
debate on health care reform affects all members of NAIFA, and health
and employee benefits advocacy should be afforded to all NAIFA
members." Read the press release at naifa.com.
MEDICARE
AND $500 BILLION - UnitedHealth says the government can save
$500 billion by reducing unnecessary care in Medicare,
like sending patients to less expensive, more efficient doctors,
reducing hospital visits by the elderly and cutting unnecessary care.
Those are among 15 suggestions made by the health management company
that is the biggest participant in the government's Medicare insurance
program for the elderly. Like other groups with an interest in the
outcome, United is trying to position itself as a constructive voice in
the debate and avoid becoming a target itself.
HEALTH
LESSONS FROM EUROPE - Time Magazine reviews a number of European
health care systems, identifying features the U.S. may want
to consider as we revamp our health care system.
2009
HSA LIMITS
- Unless changed by possible health care legislation, the deductible
contributions to health savings accounts will increase to $6,150 for
family coverage in 2010 (up from $5,950 in 2009) and to $3,050 for
individual coverage (up from $3,000 in 2009). The 2010
minimum
high-deductible health plan deductible amount increases to $2,400 for
families and $1,200 for individuals, up from $2,300 and $1,150 in
2009. Finally, the cap on out-of-pocket costs in 2010
increases
to $11,900 for families and $5,950 for individuals, up from $11,600 and
$5,800 this year.
ADVISOR
CHECK - A new website, AdvisorCheck,
provides a free online service "meant to allow consumers to investigate
the professional background of financial advisers."
MUTUAL
FUNDS UNDER SCRUTINY
- As reform of the financial services industry continues to evolve, you
can expect that all financial vehicles will receive closer
scrutiny...including mutual funds, variable annuities, variable life
and, yes, indexed products. Let's just hope that regulators will not
react to the likes of Bernie Madoff and others to the point of
strangling the sales of the vast majority of honest financial advisors.
CREDIT
CARD LOSERS
- The new credit card bill will hurt an industry that was
nickel-and-diming its cardholders, but isn't panacea to
recession-battered consumers. "Issuers have taken a body blow. They
have to make up some of this lost revenue. They are for-profit
companies and their shareholders expect it." One way to boost the
banks' profit is to charge interest from the time of the charge rather
on the balance after the statement due date. If you currently carry no
credit card balances, expect to pay interest soon. Click here
for more information on how the new credit card rules may affect you
and here
for a summary of benefits from the Credit CARD Act of
2009.
RETIREMENT
CRISIS
- "Our nation's system of retirement security is imperiled, headed for
a serious train wreck. That wreck is not merely waiting to happen; we
are running on a dangerous track that is leading directly to a serious
crash that will disable major parts of our retirement system." If,
several years before the financial and credit crisis hit, someone had
told you that the housing market was preposterously overvalued and
derivatives were headed for cataclysm, would it have been worth paying
attention to? Now there's another crisis building and, as is often the
case with gathering storms, most of us are doing our best to ignore the
warning signs.
EARLY
SOCIAL SECURITY
- The Social Security Administration had been expecting a 15% increase
in applications this year due to aging baby boomers. Instead,
they're seeing a 25% increase and speculation is that the increase has
been caused by the recession. Laid-off workers may be signing
up
for Social Security beginning at age 62 as an immediate source of
income. Unfortunately, while the income is immediate, the
reduction in their benefits will last a lifetime.
DON'T
DUMP UNDER-PERFORMING FUNDS
- Fund managers are urging financial advisers not to pull client assets
out of under-performing funds because last year was an anomaly. They
contend that 2008 was and "extreme" bear market and short term results
during such financial times should not be the only criteria for judging
the value of professional fund management.
INDEX
ANNUITY SALES UP
– According to AnnuitySpecs.com, index annuity sales rose 22.8%
year-over-year. However, their survey found that despite recent success
among index annuities, 13 insurers have pulled out of the market due to
pricing concerns.
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