October 1, 2009 Edition


PUBLIC OPTION NIXED, AGENTS WILL PARTICIPATE - The Senate Finance Committee has rejected the amendment creating a government-run health insurance system, and has accepted an amendment that could let agents participate in a proposed health "exchange" system. Both votes were bipartisan. "We are pleased by the rejection of both...amendments containing public plan options," says Tom Currey, president of NAIFA, "But, we will continue our educational efforts. There are currently three other reform proposals with government-run options, and lawmakers need to understand the negative consequences. A strong private health insurance system is best equipped to provide options for families and businesses." "The government-run plan is a roadblock to reform," AHIP spokesman Robert Zirkelbach says. "A new government-run plan would dismantle employer coverage, bankrupt hospitals, and add to the federal deficit. Reform goals can be accomplished by enacting an overhaul of the market rules and new consumer protections so that nobody falls through the cracks of our health care system."

WHY THE PUBLIC OPTION FAILED – Put simply, the public wasn't dumb enough to believe it would save money. As the Wall Street Journal puts it, "Someday this country will have a health-care debate that's not abject in its idiocy. It will involve a term used by Congressional Budget Office chief Doug Elmendorf, who has become notorious for harping on the word "incentives." The same word was used the other day by Warren Buffett, about what's missing from the health-care plan on Capitol Hill. We actually prefer the formulation of Duke University's Clark Havighurst, who speaks of restoring the "price tags" to health care. Now that's a concept that the public could actually make sense of."

WHY WAS THE PUBLIC OPTION ON THE TABLE? – Again from the WSJ, "President Barack Obama made a "public option" his centerpiece not because it's the answer to what's broken in the U.S. system, but because it's a halfway house to a single-payer setup that liberal Democrats have always wanted. Team Obama also knew the public is concerned about rising costs, so they jammed together a hooey-filled argument that the public option was somehow the solution to rising costs."

WISH LIST - We've heard a lot about Democratic proposals for reforming health care, but what about the Republicans?  There are been at least three comprehensive GOP health care reform bills introduced in Congress.  Kaiser Health News reviews them in How Republicans Would Overhaul the Health System.  

THE GOOD NEWS - The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a milestone Tuesday, closing at 9829.98, its highest close since October 6, 2008, and 50% above its 12-year low of 6547.05 of last March.  Further, The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose for the fifth straight month in August, another sign that a recovery is near for the U.S. economy. The leading index increased 0.6% after a 0.9% gain in July.

NAIFA/AHIA CHANGE - The National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors (NAIFA) has decided to change the group's relationship with its health insurance arm and has approved the full integration of the Association of Health Insurance Advisors (AHIA). Reason: Most NAIFA members have involvement with health and employee benefits products, and integration should help NAIFA increase the power of its voice in health-related matters.

AIG - With AIG's financial situation starting to stabilize, the government may be looking at revising its bailout plan in such a way to make it easier for the company to repay its government obligations.  Word of the possible revision caused AIG's stock to shoot up by more than 16% early in the week, to $46.44.

CATASTROPHE ADVERTED - Most financial industry insiders, scholars and other market observers said given the hindsight available, central banks and governments deserve most of the credit for averting disaster. Few agree, however, on which of the extraordinary measures taken during the past year made the biggest difference. "It was a period of tremendous experimentation," said Frederic Mishkin, an economist at Columbia University and a former member of the Federal Reserve Board. "When you're faced with a crisis of this magnitude, if you take the view that every measure that we take has to be exactly right, you don't do anything."

BUT STILL NOT RESOLVED - Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said the nation has not yet resolved issues in the banking system that led to the credit crunch and collapse of Lehman Brothers. "In the U.S. and many other countries, the 'too big to fail' banks have become even bigger," Stiglitz said. "The problems are worse than they were in 2007 before the crisis."

FDIC CALLS FOR UPFRONT MONEY - The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. could bring in as much as $45 billion by having banks prepay their fees for 2010, 2011 and 2012. The FDIC fund, which had more than $50 billion before the crisis began, has been so depleted by the nearly 100 bank failures this year that it could be in the red by the end of this week.  At this point, it appears that banks will look more favorably on this proposal than on special assessments levied by the FDIC to replenish the fund. 

FED BUY BACK CONTINUES - The U.S. Federal Reserve Board extended its program to buy mortgage-backed securities through March 2010. So far the Fed has purchased nearly $850 billion, or about 80% of securities issued this year by companies including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. While announcing the program's extension, the Fed said it would "gradually slow the pace of these purchases in order to promote a smooth transition in markets."



JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL - The U.S. Department of Labor reported 530,000 new unemployment claims in the week ended September 19, fewer than expected and better than the prior week's 551,000. Continuing jobless claims were slightly above 6,100,000, in line with projections.

EXISTING HOME SALES DECLINE - The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales fell to 5,100,000 units in August, down from over 5,200,000 in July. While the drop ends a string of four consecutive monthly increases in the housing market, sales were still up 3.4% from one year ago.

INFLATION IS STILL A FACTOR - The Federal Reserve is going to keep interest rates near zero for the foreseeable future. However, while there may be an inflation headache down the road for the Fed -- and consumers, so far, so good.  According to the most recent figures from the Labor Department, overall consumer prices have decreased during the past 12 months. Core consumer prices, which exclude the costs of food and energy items, are up just 1.4% over the past year. However, gold has rallied above $1,000 an ounce and many experts think that this is partly due to fears that the Fed's money-printing campaign over the past year will cause the dollar to weaken even further than it already has. "The Fed has printed a lot of money and unless Milton Friedman was wrong, when you print money inflation is going to be a problem."

SLOW LEARNERS AND LOW INCOME LOANS - The Treasury is poised to announce a program that will provide as much as $15 billion in liquidity and buy billions worth of mortgage bonds, sources said. The effort will help state housing agencies provide home loans to low-income borrowers. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will administer the program and purchase the bonds.

SIFMA WEIGHS IN ON G20 – The Group of 20 nations plan to cooperate on an overhaul of financial regulations to prevent arbitrage in the global system, require banks to hold more capital, install compensation policies linked to longer-term performance and create a process for winding down cross-border financial institutions. SIFMA CEO Timothy Ryan called the proposals "unprecedented." "While individually each initiative may have merit - and the industry supports many reforms - taken together, these reforms could negatively impact investors, capital flows, and economic growth and job creation during a period of global economic vulnerability."

BIG GOVERNMENT, BIG BUCKS - As researchers for The Free Enterprise Nation began compiling information about the pay and benefits disparity that exists between government/public education and those who work in the private sector, we'd hear an occasional "OH, MY GOSH!" or "OH, MY!" as they found another reference to shocking pay and benefits practices in the public sector. It might have been the first time they saw a State of California pensioner retiring at $500,000 a year...or perhaps the Illinois driver's training teacher earning $170,000 a year and retiring at $130,000 a year...or perhaps the New York City workers who amass more than $100,000 in overtime in their last year before retirement, triggering a pension benefit in excess of their salary. Brace yourself before you check this out at www.thefreeenterprisenation.org.

EXECUTIVE PAY - In case you're concerned about them, The Corporate Library reports that compensation for top executives at many of the largest companies was essentially unchanged last year, despite generally poor stock performance.  More information is available at www.thecorporatelibrary.com

DEATH OF THE DOLLAR? - World Bank President Robert Zoellick said the United States should not take the dollar's status as the world's key reserve currency for granted because other options are emerging. "The United States would be mistaken to take for granted the dollar's place as the world's predominant reserve currency," he said. "Looking forward, there will increasingly be other options."

YOUNG UNEMPLOYMENT AT 52.2% - According to the Labor Dept, the unemployment rate for young Americans has exploded to 52.2%...a post-World War II high. Many young Americans are staring at the likelihood that their lifetime earning potential will be diminished and, combined with the predicted slow economic recovery, their transition into productive members of society could be put on hold for an extended period of time.  And worse, without a clear economic recovery plan aimed at creating entry-level jobs, the odds of many of these young adults (16 to 24, excluding students) getting a job and moving out of their parents' houses are long. Young workers have been among the hardest hit during the current recession, in which a total of 9,500,000 jobs have been lost.

SOME BILLIONS NOT REAL BILLIONS -  In an era when the budget deficit (nearing $1.58 trillion) and debt ($11.8 trillion on the low side) are at all-time highs, when it looks as if the expanding federal apparatus will soon swallow the entire nation, the administration found $2.7 billion in spending cuts. That is great but is it a real cut? No, it's just a small restraint on raises. Instead of funding $22.6 billion for 2.4% cost-of-living allowances for 2010, the taxpayers will be responsible for providing $19.9 billion to pay for a 2% COLA. Yet civilian federal workers, who are almost impossible to fire for poor performance, are still getting raises on top of deals that are far better than those of their counterparts in the private sector.

TREASURY TO KEEP TARP $ - The Treasury might opt to extend the Troubled Asset Relief Program, which is set to expire Dec. 31, but even if the program is not extended, Treasury officials are trying to find a way to keep some of the remaining $200 billion in reserve. The efforts could be setting up a battle over the funds because lawmakers are increasingly concerned about the nation's growing debt.

BANKER PAY NOT LINKED TO CRISIS - G20 leaders are pondering restrictions on bankers' pay but there is, in fact, little evidence to cite compensation as one of the causes of the financial crisis, writes Jeffrey Friedman of the University of Texas at Austin. Bank CEOs actually owned about 10 times as much of their bank's stock as they were typically paid per year, according to a study by professors at Ohio State University. Additionally, a study by compensation consultant Watson Wyatt Worldwide shows that banks that richly rewarded performance were not more likely to go bankrupt than others. Whatever, it just doesn't smell right.

TARP SUCCESS MIXED - Neil Barofsky, special inspector general of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, told the Senate banking committee that the effort played a "significant role" in stabilizing the financial system. "There are without question significant signs of improvement in the stability of the system," Barofsky said. He also cited efforts by the Federal Reserve, the Treasury and other agencies as contributing to the market turnaround. However, he called the overall success of TARP "mixed."

FED STILL A SECRET AND SACRED COW - Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner proposed a "comprehensive review" of the Federal Reserve's "ability to accomplish its existing and proposed functions." After initially agreeing to the review, some Fed officials deemed the review as a possible threat to the central bank's independence, the sources said. "It is not obvious at all why that is a Treasury responsibility or even appropriate why the Treasury would undertake that kind of study. The Fed was created by Congress, and it is not part of the executive branch." Flash: Congress has no clue what the Fed is doing either. However, the Fed has been under increasing scrutiny for its role in the financial crisis, and a bill from Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, which would have the Government Accountability Office audit the Fed has gained broad support.

BOA MESS - In case you haven't heard, Bank of America's acquisition of Merrill Lynch is now under investigation by the Justice Department and FBI.  Since a judge threw out the proposed settlement over BOA's failure to disclose its authorization to Merrill Lynch to pay up to $5.8 billion in bonuses, the SEC now says it will take BOA to court, which may open the possibility that bank executives could also face charges.  In throwing out the settlement, the judge quite rightly said that the proposed settlement unfairly penalized shareholders (who were the ones the Merrill bonuses weren't disclosed to prior to voting on the merger).  Wait though...there's more to this mess.  The Ohio attorney general has filed a class-action lawsuit against Bank of America and its executives, alleging that the bank improperly concealed billions of dollars in losses and billions in Merrill bonuses paid before the shareholder vote on the proposed merger.

EXPECT CAP AND TRADE TO RETURN TO HEADLINES - Energy and environmental policy returns to the spotlight as Sens. Barbara Boxer and John Kerry introduce legislation to curb climate change. Also, watch for a name change to something like the "Pollution Reduction Bill." Apparently, "focus groups" don't understand what is meant by "Cap and Trade." The real problem may be that the public is beginning to understand what such a bill will do to them personally and the economy in generally.  President Obama has said "electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket," but estimates range from only $175 per household to over $2,000. The major problem may be the damage to the economy and trade policy. As one opponent points out, "The problem we've got in this country is that if you pay $40 an hour and try to compete against $5 labor, and you've got these EPA rules and these regulations and the other countries don't, that we keep bleeding our prosperity. I think we've now reached a point that we've disproven this service economy."


HEALTH CARE COSTS - Hewitt Associates estimates that health care cost rate increases for large companies will average about 6% in 2010.  Employee out-of-pocket costs are expected to go up 10%.  Based on these projections, total health care premiums will have more than doubled from $4,159 in 2001 to $9,120 in 2010 and employee's share of those costs will have more than tripled, from $1,262 in 2001 to $4,023 in 2010.  Employers have been dealing with rate increases in a variety of ways:  increasing employee cost sharing, assessing the eligibility of covered dependents, requiring employees to pay more for dependent coverage and encouraging enrollment in high-deductible health plans.  The Business Roundtable estimates that per-employee costs will jump to $28,530 by 2019 from $10,743 currently if nothing is done to rein in the cost of health care.  

PERMANENT LIFE INSURANCE - According to a survey sponsored by New York Life, "American families are reporting an increased desire for financial protection in these times of economic crisis, but do not have the proper financial strategy in place to fund their families' future."  The time seems ripe to explain to clients the benefits of life insurance, particularly permanent life insurance.  Here's a booklet from The Hartford that focuses on the living benefits of permanent life insurance:  Change Your Perspective on Life.  Another resource is available from Penn Mutual, which underscores the need to better communicate all the advantages of life insurance, especially to women: www.worthforwomen.com.  Finally, here's a MetLife survey demonstrating the impact of a spouse's death on a family's financial security.  

EARLY RETIREMENTS STRAIN SOCIAL SECURITY - Big job losses and a spike in early retirement claims from laid-off seniors will force Social Security to pay out more in benefits than it collects in taxes the next two years, the first time that's happened since the 1980s. Applications for retirement benefits are 23% higher than last year, while disability claims have risen by about 20%. Social Security officials had expected applications to increase from the growing number of baby boomers reaching retirement, but they didn't expect the increase to be so large. If you wish to "checkout early," check out the Social Security retirement planner at www.ssa.gov.

PUBLIC COMMUNICATIONS - FINRA is requesting comments on its proposed changes to the rules that govern communications with the public.  The proposed changes are available in Regulatory Notice 09-55

BANKS LOWER OVERDRAFT FEES BUT BEWARE - In the wake of the uproar over bank fees charged to debit card holders, banking giants Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo have announced drastic changes to their overdraft policies. However, banks continue to "nickel and dime" customers in other ways that can easily cost $100 or more per year. Watch out for these hidden fees:
  • Balance Transfer Fees: Up to 3% and 5% hidden in the fine print.
  • Cash Advances: Ranges between 3% and 5%.
  • Foreign Currency Surcharges: Expect a 3% fee for any purchases made in foreign currencies.
  • Balance Requirements: Keep a minimum balance or expect a charge of $8 or more.
  • ATM Fees: Banks charge $3 to withdraw money from their ATMs. But at least you have to agree to pay the fee at the terminal. Some customers don't realize their own bank often levies a $2 fee every time they use a competitor's ATM.
LTC IQ - According to a MetLife Mature Market Institute study, American's long-term care IQ is pretty bad.  For example, lots of folks continue to believe that Medicare, health insurance and disability insurance pay long-term care expenses.  Click here for more information on the study.  

TOP FINANCIAL CONCERNS - The CFP Board released results of a survey indicating that preparing for retirement and managing income in retirement are among the top financial concerns voiced by American consumers.  Other top concerns were generating current income, managing or reducing debt and providing health insurance coverage.  Despite their concerns, however, only about one third of the Americans surveyed have a written financial plan.

ENOUGH SAVINGS, AMERICANS WANT "STUFF" - According to a new survey by American Express, the newfound frugality in the U.S. may already be over. Amid the first signs of an economic rebound, Americans are ready to do what they do best: shop. People are starting to spend again, albeit slowly, after the savings rate rose to a 15-year high during the longest economic contraction since the 1930s. American Express surveyed the general U.S. population, as well as two sub-groups: the "affluent" and "young professionals."  Young professionals were more optimistic about the economy and more likely to increase spending during the next 30 days...24% versus 14% of the affluent pool and 10% of the general population. Well, my wife considers shopping as "retail therapy."

GAG ORDER? - The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) got wind of a mailing from Humana to its Medicare Advantage customers, warning them that health care reform legislation could cause them to lose Medicare Advantage access, benefits and services and ordered Humana (and all other Medicare Advantage providers) to stop all such mailings because, among other concerns, "the information is misleading and confusing to beneficiaries."  America's Health Insurance Plans are calling the CMS order a "gag order," Congressional Republicans are agreeing with AHIP, Democrats are not and the National Association of Insurance Commissioners is backing CMS.

FESS UP OR FACE THE MUSIC - The IRS has extended its tax amnesty program for U.S. taxpayers with unreported offshore income to October 15 and the IRS says that's it.  Come forward by October 15 or face harsher civil penalties and possible criminal prosecution.  Tax attorneys who specialize in offshore cases are reported to be busy.

FORM 1098 AND THE IRS - The Wall Street Journal reports that the IRS is using Form 1098 as a window into taxpayers' income.  Form 1098 is the form on which a lender reports the amount of interest you pay each year as part of your mortgage payment.  The borrower receives a copy and so does the IRS.  The original intention of the form was to make sure taxpayers don't deduct more mortgage interest than they paid.  The IRS, however, is now investigating 1098s that don't match up to a tax return and sending notices to non-filers, telling them to either file or explain why they don't need to file.  Apparently the program has already resulted in nearly 70,000 new tax returns and $276,000,000 in tax assessments.

INVESTOR GREED RETURNS - Financial advisers are becoming concerned that a growing number of formerly wary clients are becoming dangerously aggressive and worry about clients making more ill-timed bets. Factors in this newfound greed may come from investors who missed the run-up in the market and are wracked with regret and feeling that there is almost no return on cash holdings.

AARP TALKS UP ANNUITIES AND "VAPORCARE" – A recent AARP report recommends retirees should consider annuitizing enough of their savings to cover such recurring expenses as rent or mortgage payments, utilities, food and medicine. This is good, but AARP is also apparently supporting a government health care program that is, at this point, "vaporcare" since no one seems to know or at least can explain what it will do to reduce the rising cost of medical care.
 

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