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October 15, 2007
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RECESSION ODDS LOWER
– A WSJ survey
of economists puts the chance of a recession at 34%, down from 36% last
month. Reason appears to be that the Fed interest-rate cuts may have
stemmed the credit crunch. Three-fourths of the respondents felt the
rate cut was appropriate.
CEOs
UNCERTAIN - The Financial
Times
reports that conflicting economic conditions and a volatile business
environment have CEOs more cautious about business decisions than at
any time since the 2001 recession. "I don't think anybody knows for
sure exactly what the consumer is going to do this fall," says Ken
Hicks of J. C. Penny.
SPAMALOT
WORKING
– The SEC’s "Operation Spamalot" appears to be
working. The
program was designed to reduce the amount of financial spam and
consisted of banning the touting of stocks in e-mails. Financial spam
is down in the U.S., but significantly up in other countries.
MORE
FROM THE SEC ON SPAM
– The SEC suspended three companies’ securities
trading,
due to the firms not disclosing adequate and accurate information in
e-mail offers. Specifically, the firms inadequately disclosed any or
all of the following: assets, business operations and/or management,
current financial condition and financing arrangements involving the
issuance of the companies’ shares. In the last seven months,
the
SEC has suspended 39 companies and reported a 30% decrease financial
spam.
THE WOW
DOW
– Now that the Dow Jones has passed the 14,000 barrier, what
is
next? Remember that you heard it here first...the Dow will continue to
rise and fall.
FORECLOSURE
RATES DROP
- RealtyTrac reports that while foreclosure rates are expected to
remain high, they fell 8% in September from a 32-month high in August.
Lenders and politicians are both trying to help borrowers with
“workouts.”
MOODY
DOWNGRADES
– Moody has handed out downgraded ratings on a record $33.4
billion of securities backed by subprime mortgages and predicts
home-loan losses will continue to rise.
WE’RE
FAT! – According to a report issued by the
journal Health Affairs,
nearly twice as many Americans are obese, as compared to Europeans,
leading Americans to suffer more from cancer, diabetes and other
chronic ailments. The treatment of obesity-related diseases
adds
$100 billion to $150 billion to the annual U.S. health care bill.
NO HELP
– The PBGC chief actuary says that last year’s
Pension
Protection Act has not improved the security of defined benefit plans
and the PBGC deficit is not likely to change much over the next 10
years.
WHO
MAKES WHAT
– Want to know the 2007 base salary and 2006 base salary,
bonus,
other cash compensation and total compensation for 240 management and
professional positions, and 96 clerical positions nationwide?
SIFMA's 2007 compensation reports, "Management & Professional
Earnings in the Securities Industry" and "Office Salaries in the
Securities Industry," are now available for purchase at www.sifma.org.
GREENSPAN
– He may be retired from the Federal Reserve but he has been
all
over the news for the last several weeks. Consider these headlines:
- Greenspan expects the credit crunch to take a toll
on the overall U.S. economy.
- Greenspan says U.S. economic growth slowing.
- Greenspan says U.S. dollar not a problem right now.
- Greenspan: Worst of Subprime Crisis Over
We
don’t know which of any of the above are true, but we do know
that many people “hang on his every word.”
We’d think
that his ongoing pronouncements are making things more difficult for
the current Federal Reserve Board members.
CHEATING
IN CHINA
- The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace reports that
corruption in China is an $86 billion-a-year business. Bribes, theft,
etc. make up about 10% of the government's spending and transactions,
“posing a serious threat to the country's economy and
political
stability.”
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EXECUTIVE
PAY AGAIN
– With research showing CEOs are receiving as much as 10
times as
much in compensation as other top company executives, the SEC is
starting to ask companies about "the gap." "[This] is a red flag for
investors. It is a classic sign that the board may be beholden to the
chief executive," said Christopher Ailman, CIO of California State
Teachers' Retirement System.
DEFICIT
CUT $85 BILLION
- Tax receipts continue to grow and the federal budget deficit now
totals $163 billion...a decline of $85 billion from the prior
year. The fiscal 2007 deficit equals 1.2% of gross domestic
product, compared to around 1.9% in fiscal 2006, according to reports.
MENTAL
HEALTH PARITY
– A House Health Subcommittee has approved a version of a
major
mental health parity bill that would require group health plans that
offer mental health benefits to provide equal treatment for physical
and mental health conditions. Employer groups and other critics say the
bill could increase costs by requiring affected group plans to cover
all conditions listed in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of
Mental Disorders (DSM). FYI, the DSM includes diagnoses such as
“jet lag” and caffeine-related disorders. Can you
spell
rate increases? Alternatively, employers may consider
dropping
mental health benefits altogether.
BUSH
VETOES SCHIP BILL
- President Bush has vetoed H.R. 976, a bill that would have extended
the State Children’s Health Insurance Program. Bill
supporters
have argued that the extension was important to protecting the ability
of children to get regular, timely access to health care. The bill
called for increasing funding from $25 billion to $60 billion and Bush
has proposed increasing SCHIP funding to $30 billion. In addition to
being too expensive, President Bush believes the bill would have given
states too much flexibility to cover moderate-income children as well
as low-income children.
CREDIT
RATING AUTO PREMIUMS
– The practice of insurers basing auto insurance premiums on
a
customer's credit rating was questioned at a House hearing, with
critics saying it disproportionately hurts young people and minorities.
Insurance industry representatives were quick to defend the practice as
actuarially sound and a valid indicator of risk.
LL
GLOBAL
- The boards of LIMRA International and LOMA will collaborate to form
LL Global Incorporated, an umbrella organization intended to provide a
unified management structure for both groups. As a result, all 800
LIMRA members and all 1,200 LOMA members would become LL Global
members.
FEWER
LIFE APPS...AGAIN
- MIB reports U.S. life insurers checked in 4.8% fewer individually
underwritten life insurance applications in August than they checked in
the comparable month a year earlier. The MIB activity index has fallen
during most months for the past three years.
PRU
SUES STATE STREET
- Prudential has filed suit against units of State Street, seeking
restitution for funds sold by State Street that suffered heavy losses.
Pru charges that without notification State Street made "undisclosed,
highly-leveraged investments in mortgage-related financial instruments"
yielding "catastrophic results."
ALLIANZ
SETTLES WITH 60,000 ANNUITY HOLDERS
- Allianz has settled claims that the company misled clients, many of
them elderly, when they purchased a certain annuity. Allianz
will
offer the investors cash payments to settle the case...the amounts
varying, depending on how much money each investor held in an annuity
on a specific date. All net of plaintiff legal fees, we are sure.
COUNTRYWIDE
CEO PROBED
– In the wake of his state pension fund losing money on
investments in Countrywide, North Carolina Treasurer Richard Moore is
asking the SEC to investigate stock trades by Countrywide CEO Angelo
Mozilo. "While Countrywide shareholders have faced massive losses, Mr.
Mozilo has been stuffing his pockets."
GRASSO
STILL FIGHTING
– Former NYSE Chairman Dick Grasso is on a mission to clear
to
clear his name four years after accusations that his pay was inflated
and improperly obtained. Actually, it is not just his reputation...the
pending case by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo could force
Grasso to return much of his pay to the exchange.
NEW
PASSPORT RULES
– If you're a U.S. citizen traveling by air between the U.S.
and
Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean or Bermuda, you need a passport. Children
under 16 and traveling with a parent or guardian will need to prove
they have at least applied for a passport. If you're driving or
cruising, you won't need passports...until next year. If you
don’t have a current passport, go to the State Department Web
site at www.travel.state.gov.
If you're getting a passport for the first time, you'll have to go to a
passport acceptance facility in person.
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STUDY
PREDICTS STRONG ADVISOR GROWTH
- According to a recent study by Schwab Institutional, participating
independent registered investment advisor (RIA) firms' assets under
management grew a median of 20% in 2006 and revenues increased at a
median rate of 16% during the same period. Additionally, the study
found that from 2003 to 2006, participating firms grew their client
base by 8% annually with the average client portfolio increasing 42% to
$1.04 million. "Independent advisors are experiencing phenomenal growth
and the future remains very bright, because asset and revenue growth
are far exceeding client growth, which should lead to increased firm
profitability."
PRICE
UNCERTAINTY – The WSJ
predicts a continuing period of uncertainty for investors where less
transparency, and more risk and confusion are common. The cause comes
from the fact that more than half of securities traded on exchanges
have no readily available price information and investors are forced to
rely on dealers without the benefit of published price quotes.
TAXPAYER
CHOICE ACT
– In an effort to provide a replacement for the alternative
minimum tax, House Republicans have introduced legislation that would
give taxpayers the choice of being taxed under the current system or
through a new simplified tax. More details are available here.
ESTATE
TAX REVISITED
– Don’t expect any action on the estate tax this
year, but
we may see estate tax legislation introduced next spring. At
this
point, it doesn’t appear that legislation will be introduced
to
abolish the estate tax. Instead, it will be designed to put a
“permanent fix” in place.
AFFLUENT
AND THE ESTATE TAX – If you’re in the
estate planning market, check out this report
from The Hartford. Apparently there are a lot of affluent
people
who haven’t done much to plan their
estates.
LIFE
SETTLEMENT MARKET
– Conning Research has issued a new study on the life
settlement
market, reporting a growing demand for life settlement
assets.
For more information on the report, click
here.
RICH
GET RICHER
– According to the IRS, the wealthiest Americans –
the top
1% of income earners – took home 21.2% of the
nation’s
adjusted gross income in 2005, up from 19% in 2004. The
bottom
50% of earners brought home just 12.83% of adjusted gross income, an
all-time low. On the other hand, the wealthiest paid a record
high 39.38% of income taxes in 2005.
THIS IS
NUTS! –
In an effort to close a budget shortfall, effective December 1 Michigan
lawmakers are imposing a 6% sales tax on financial advisory services,
putting fee-based planners at a disadvantage when compared to
commission-based planners. Adding insult to injury, financial
advisory services are being lumped together in the same
“non-essential service” category as tanning salons,
escort
services, psychic reading and massage services.
ADVICE
FOR “PEOPLE LIKE ME”
– According to a new MetLife survey, many people are looking
for
information and advice geared toward their life stage. More
information on the study is available at www.metlife.com.
RANGEL’S
MOTHER OF ALL TAX REFORMS
- Rep. Charles B. Rangel is poised to introduce the
“mother” of all tax reforms, but no one knows
exactly what
the plan will entail and how it will be paid for. Needless to say, the
uncertainty is fueling rampant speculation. According to The
Politico, the “fiscal fortunetellers” fall into
four
categories: Robin Hoods, Goldilockses, Chicken Littles and Scarecrows.
To see where you fall, check out the complete article by clicking here.
SENATOR
GRASSLEY IS ASKING QUESTIONS
– Sen. Charles Grassley, the senior Republican on the Senate
Finance Committee, is asking questions about the payment of long-term
care claims by insurers. Sen. Grassley is strongly hinting
that
government interest in supporting LTC insurance through federal tax
incentives and partnership programs could depend on “insurers
paying benefits smoothly enough to keep policyholders from collecting
Medicaid nursing home benefits.” More information
is
available in a NYT article.
TAX HIKE
– From the Reuters Wealth Management Summit we get the word
that
rich Americans are resigned to the fact that their taxes will go up in
coming years and are beginning to modify their investment strategies
accordingly. Click
here for more news from the Wealth Management
Summit.
LONGEVITY
RISK AND VA
- Americans can no longer rely on the benefits provided by employer
pension plans or Social Security to provide guaranteed income for life.
The “longevity risk” is the risk of outliving your
retirement savings and variable annuities provide a possible solution.
Variable annuities (VA) provide income that cannot be outlived. In
addition to the benefits of tax-deferral and lifetime-income
generation, current products offer optional benefits, known as Living
Benefits. Living Benefits work to protect retirement assets and
guarantee predictable levels of retirement income regardless of market
conditions.
MUTUAL
FUND AD SPENDING DOWN
- Ad spending directed toward mutual funds declined 8% in 2005, and 14%
in 2006 as a result of firms trying to attract their target audience of
advisors rather than just consumers.
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