© Copyright 2007
US FlagOctober 15, 2007 Edition



RECESSION ODDS LOWER – A WSJ survey of economists puts the chance of a recession at 34%, down from 36% last month. Reason appears to be that the Fed interest-rate cuts may have stemmed the credit crunch. Three-fourths of the respondents felt the rate cut was appropriate. 

CEOs UNCERTAIN - The Financial Times reports that conflicting economic conditions and a volatile business environment have CEOs more cautious about business decisions than at any time since the 2001 recession. "I don't think anybody knows for sure exactly what the consumer is going to do this fall," says Ken Hicks of J. C. Penny. 

SPAMALOT WORKING – The SEC’s "Operation Spamalot" appears to be working. The program was designed to reduce the amount of financial spam and consisted of banning the touting of stocks in e-mails. Financial spam is down in the U.S., but significantly up in other countries.

MORE FROM THE SEC ON SPAM – The SEC suspended three companies’ securities trading, due to the firms not disclosing adequate and accurate information in e-mail offers. Specifically, the firms inadequately disclosed any or all of the following: assets, business operations and/or management, current financial condition and financing arrangements involving the issuance of the companies’ shares. In the last seven months, the SEC has suspended 39 companies and reported a 30% decrease financial spam.

THE WOW DOW – Now that the Dow Jones has passed the 14,000 barrier, what is next? Remember that you heard it here first...the Dow will continue to rise and fall.

FORECLOSURE RATES DROP - RealtyTrac reports that while foreclosure rates are expected to remain high, they fell 8% in September from a 32-month high in August. Lenders and politicians are both trying to help borrowers with “workouts.”

MOODY DOWNGRADES – Moody has handed out downgraded ratings on a record $33.4 billion of securities backed by subprime mortgages and predicts home-loan losses will continue to rise.

WE’RE FAT! – According to a report issued by the journal Health Affairs, nearly twice as many Americans are obese, as compared to Europeans, leading Americans to suffer more from cancer, diabetes and other chronic ailments.  The treatment of obesity-related diseases adds $100 billion to $150 billion to the annual U.S. health care bill.

NO HELP – The PBGC chief actuary says that last year’s Pension Protection Act has not improved the security of defined benefit plans and the PBGC deficit is not likely to change much over the next 10 years. 

WHO MAKES WHAT – Want to know the 2007 base salary and 2006 base salary, bonus, other cash compensation and total compensation for 240 management and professional positions, and 96 clerical positions nationwide?  SIFMA's 2007 compensation reports, "Management & Professional Earnings in the Securities Industry" and "Office Salaries in the Securities Industry," are now available for purchase at www.sifma.org.

GREENSPAN – He may be retired from the Federal Reserve but he has been all over the news for the last several weeks. Consider these headlines:
  • Greenspan expects the credit crunch to take a toll on the overall U.S. economy. 
  • Greenspan says U.S. economic growth slowing.
  • Greenspan says U.S. dollar not a problem right now.
  • Greenspan: Worst of Subprime Crisis Over
We don’t know which of any of the above are true, but we do know that many people “hang on his every word.” We’d think that his ongoing pronouncements are making things more difficult for the current Federal Reserve Board members.

CHEATING IN CHINA - The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace reports that corruption in China is an $86 billion-a-year business. Bribes, theft, etc. make up about 10% of the government's spending and transactions, “posing a serious threat to the country's economy and political stability.”



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EXECUTIVE PAY AGAIN – With research showing CEOs are receiving as much as 10 times as much in compensation as other top company executives, the SEC is starting to ask companies about "the gap." "[This] is a red flag for investors. It is a classic sign that the board may be beholden to the chief executive," said Christopher Ailman, CIO of California State Teachers' Retirement System. 

DEFICIT CUT $85 BILLION - Tax receipts continue to grow and the federal budget deficit now totals $163 billion...a decline of $85 billion from the prior year.  The fiscal 2007 deficit equals 1.2% of gross domestic product, compared to around 1.9% in fiscal 2006, according to reports.

MENTAL HEALTH PARITY – A House Health Subcommittee has approved a version of a major mental health parity bill that would require group health plans that offer mental health benefits to provide equal treatment for physical and mental health conditions. Employer groups and other critics say the bill could increase costs by requiring affected group plans to cover all conditions listed in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM). FYI, the DSM includes diagnoses such as “jet lag” and caffeine-related disorders. Can you spell rate increases?  Alternatively, employers may consider dropping mental health benefits altogether. 

BUSH VETOES SCHIP BILL - President Bush has vetoed H.R. 976, a bill that would have extended the State Children’s Health Insurance Program. Bill supporters have argued that the extension was important to protecting the ability of children to get regular, timely access to health care. The bill called for increasing funding from $25 billion to $60 billion and Bush has proposed increasing SCHIP funding to $30 billion. In addition to being too expensive, President Bush believes the bill would have given states too much flexibility to cover moderate-income children as well as low-income children.

CREDIT RATING AUTO PREMIUMS – The practice of insurers basing auto insurance premiums on a customer's credit rating was questioned at a House hearing, with critics saying it disproportionately hurts young people and minorities. Insurance industry representatives were quick to defend the practice as actuarially sound and a valid indicator of risk.

LL GLOBAL - The boards of LIMRA International and LOMA will collaborate to form LL Global Incorporated, an umbrella organization intended to provide a unified management structure for both groups. As a result, all 800 LIMRA members and all 1,200 LOMA members would become LL Global members. 

FEWER LIFE APPS...AGAIN - MIB reports U.S. life insurers checked in 4.8% fewer individually underwritten life insurance applications in August than they checked in the comparable month a year earlier. The MIB activity index has fallen during most months for the past three years.

PRU SUES STATE STREET - Prudential has filed suit against units of State Street, seeking restitution for funds sold by State Street that suffered heavy losses. Pru charges that without notification State Street made "undisclosed, highly-leveraged investments in mortgage-related financial instruments" yielding "catastrophic results." 

ALLIANZ SETTLES WITH 60,000 ANNUITY HOLDERS - Allianz has settled claims that the company misled clients, many of them elderly, when they purchased a certain annuity.  Allianz will offer the investors cash payments to settle the case...the amounts varying, depending on how much money each investor held in an annuity on a specific date. All net of plaintiff legal fees, we are sure.

COUNTRYWIDE CEO PROBED – In the wake of his state pension fund losing money on investments in Countrywide, North Carolina Treasurer Richard Moore is asking the SEC to investigate stock trades by Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo. "While Countrywide shareholders have faced massive losses, Mr. Mozilo has been stuffing his pockets."

GRASSO STILL FIGHTING – Former NYSE Chairman Dick Grasso is on a mission to clear to clear his name four years after accusations that his pay was inflated and improperly obtained. Actually, it is not just his reputation...the pending case by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo could force Grasso to return much of his pay to the exchange. 

NEW PASSPORT RULES – If you're a U.S. citizen traveling by air between the U.S. and Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean or Bermuda, you need a passport. Children under 16 and traveling with a parent or guardian will need to prove they have at least applied for a passport. If you're driving or cruising, you won't need passports...until next year. If you don’t have a current passport, go to the State Department Web site at www.travel.state.gov. If you're getting a passport for the first time, you'll have to go to a passport acceptance facility in person.


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STUDY PREDICTS STRONG ADVISOR GROWTH - According to a recent study by Schwab Institutional, participating independent registered investment advisor (RIA) firms' assets under management grew a median of 20% in 2006 and revenues increased at a median rate of 16% during the same period. Additionally, the study found that from 2003 to 2006, participating firms grew their client base by 8% annually with the average client portfolio increasing 42% to $1.04 million. "Independent advisors are experiencing phenomenal growth and the future remains very bright, because asset and revenue growth are far exceeding client growth, which should lead to increased firm profitability."

PRICE UNCERTAINTY – The WSJ predicts a continuing period of uncertainty for investors where less transparency, and more risk and confusion are common. The cause comes from the fact that more than half of securities traded on exchanges have no readily available price information and investors are forced to rely on dealers without the benefit of published price quotes.

TAXPAYER CHOICE ACT – In an effort to provide a replacement for the alternative minimum tax, House Republicans have introduced legislation that would give taxpayers the choice of being taxed under the current system or through a new simplified tax.  More details are available here

ESTATE TAX REVISITED – Don’t expect any action on the estate tax this year, but we may see estate tax legislation introduced next spring.  At this point, it doesn’t appear that legislation will be introduced to abolish the estate tax.  Instead, it will be designed to put a “permanent fix” in place.

AFFLUENT AND THE ESTATE TAX – If you’re in the estate planning market, check out this report from The Hartford.  Apparently there are a lot of affluent people who haven’t done much to plan their estates.  

LIFE SETTLEMENT MARKET – Conning Research has issued a new study on the life settlement market, reporting a growing demand for life settlement assets.  For more information on the report, click here

RICH GET RICHER – According to the IRS, the wealthiest Americans – the top 1% of income earners – took home 21.2% of the nation’s adjusted gross income in 2005, up from 19% in 2004.  The bottom 50% of earners brought home just 12.83% of adjusted gross income, an all-time low.  On the other hand, the wealthiest paid a record high 39.38% of income taxes in 2005.

THIS IS NUTS! – In an effort to close a budget shortfall, effective December 1 Michigan lawmakers are imposing a 6% sales tax on financial advisory services, putting fee-based planners at a disadvantage when compared to commission-based planners.  Adding insult to injury, financial advisory services are being lumped together in the same “non-essential service” category as tanning salons, escort services, psychic reading and massage services.

ADVICE FOR “PEOPLE LIKE ME” – According to a new MetLife survey, many people are looking for information and advice geared toward their life stage.  More information on the study is available at www.metlife.com.  

RANGEL’S MOTHER OF ALL TAX REFORMS - Rep. Charles B. Rangel is poised to introduce the “mother” of all tax reforms, but no one knows exactly what the plan will entail and how it will be paid for. Needless to say, the uncertainty is fueling rampant speculation.  According to The Politico, the “fiscal fortunetellers” fall into four categories: Robin Hoods, Goldilockses, Chicken Littles and Scarecrows. To see where you fall, check out the complete article by clicking here.

SENATOR GRASSLEY IS ASKING QUESTIONS – Sen. Charles Grassley, the senior Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, is asking questions about the payment of long-term care claims by insurers.  Sen. Grassley is strongly hinting that government interest in supporting LTC insurance through federal tax incentives and partnership programs could depend on “insurers paying benefits smoothly enough to keep policyholders from collecting Medicaid nursing home benefits.”  More information is available in a NYT article.

TAX HIKE – From the Reuters Wealth Management Summit we get the word that rich Americans are resigned to the fact that their taxes will go up in coming years and are beginning to modify their investment strategies accordingly.  Click here for more news from the Wealth Management Summit.  

LONGEVITY RISK AND VA - Americans can no longer rely on the benefits provided by employer pension plans or Social Security to provide guaranteed income for life. The “longevity risk” is the risk of outliving your retirement savings and variable annuities provide a possible solution. Variable annuities (VA) provide income that cannot be outlived. In addition to the benefits of tax-deferral and lifetime-income generation, current products offer optional benefits, known as Living Benefits. Living Benefits work to protect retirement assets and guarantee predictable levels of retirement income regardless of market conditions.

MUTUAL FUND AD SPENDING DOWN - Ad spending directed toward mutual funds declined 8% in 2005, and 14% in 2006 as a result of firms trying to attract their target audience of advisors rather than just consumers.