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October 15, 2008
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WHERE
DO WE BEGIN?
– With the world suffering the greatest financial crisis of our
time, the causes, problems and solutions are extraordinarily complex.
Worse yet, there are a lot of solutions being thrown around, but no one
seems to be certain what solutions will work. We'll try to summarize
what most people think happened. As far as solutions, we will tell you
what is out there, but sure won't predict results.
WORST
WEEK,
BEST DAY - The Dow closed Friday, Oct. 10, 2008 with its
worst
week
in history. The
dismal week wiped out about $2.4 trillion in shareholder
wealth. The eight-day losing streak drained 2,400 points from the
Dow... about 22%.
Then
on Monday morning it
gained more than 11%, its biggest one-day rally since
1933. The 936 point increase shattered the previous record
for a
one-day gain
of 499. The Dow remains 34.3% below its Oct. 9, 2007 record close of
14,164.53.
FED BANK OWNERSHIP - The Treasury
is still
pondering how to restore confidence in the banking system and is
considering using the $700 billion rescue legislation to
take ownership stakes in some banks. Doing so
would strengthen the banks' balance sheets and could prompt them to
begin lending again. The Federal ownership would be in the form of
preferred, thus non-voting stock.
REGULATION BACKLASH - Expect more
government
regulation of the
financial sector in the future. The shift comes after nearly 30 years
of policies that leaned toward deregulation. "We now have a collective
anger, disgust, over our whole financial system and it's obvious we're
going to get a regulatory backlash."
US DOLLAR INJECTION - The
Treasury Department plans to invest as much as $250 billion in banks
and guarantee newly issued bank debt for three years to battle the
financial crisis. The FDIC
will guarantee all deposit accounts that do not earn interest and the
funds will come from the $700 billion rescue package.
FOREIGN DOLLAR INJECTION - As
part of a coordinated effort to boost the troubled financial sector,
governments across Europe have pledged $2.6 trillion to
guarantee interbank loans and inject liquidity into the banking system.
triggered rallies in the region's stock markets. Japan and
Australia followed Europe's lead and introduced similar plans. Where
does all this money come from?
CAUSES?
– It seems the cause of this meltdown is a lot simpler than the
solutions. The root causes are the federal government requiring
subprime loans and allowing complex financial products to
be
issued.
And it surely was fueled by substantial amounts of greed and easy
money. Summary:
- In
1971 Congress created a worthy project with noble intentions - the
Community Reinvestment Act (CRA). Over strong industry objections, it
mandated that all banks meet the credit needs of their entire
communities.
- 1995
saw stronger regulations and performance tests that coerced banks to
substantially increase loans to low-income, poverty-area borrowers or
face fines or possible restrictions on expansion. These revisions
allowed for secularization of CRA loans containing subprime mortgages.
- By
1997, greedy bankers started bundling good loans with poor ones and
sold them as prime packages to institutions here and abroad. That
shifted risk from the loan originators, freeing banks to begin
pyramiding and making more of these profitable subprime products.
- Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac joined in the "greed fest." By 2003, these
"quasi-governmental agencies" had $1.5 trillion in outstanding debt and
a bill was proposed to "rein" things in.
- In
2005 a bill was proposed to "bring some oversight to Fannie and
Freddie," but political bickering and influence peddling blocked its
passage. Fannie and Freddie continued to issue loans that had little
chance of surviving foreclosure in a down housing market.
- These
subprime products have now permeated the entire world economy.
- Early
in 2008, a new accounting rule required companies to
“mark-to-market” (more below) all securities and thus take
some $535 billion of write-downs in assets. This scared the hell out of
investors and they reacted accordingly.
“MARK-TO-MARKET”
- This is very complex. Most people still believe the real
cause
of the current collapse is subprime loans, but this rule sure added
fuel to the fire. Here is how it worked.
- When
borrowers got loans, the banks typically sold these loans to Wall
Street firms, who then repackaged them as bonds backed by the value of
a house or property. Wall Street then sold these bonds to mutual funds,
pension funds and all sorts of investors around the globe.
- As
house prices dropped in value, so did the value of these bonds, which
vary in type as mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt
obligations (CDOs), even CDOs of credit default swaps or exotic bonds
called CDO-squareds.
- The
accounting rule says that companies that own these bonds must value
these bonds each quarter as if they were going to be sold immediately.
That process is called “mark to market.”
- But
since these bonds have dropped in value, no one wants them.
- Companies
must then book losses on these bonds even if they did not sell them.
- “Mark
to market” has since been jokingly called “mark to
mayhem” and “mark to madness.” The SEC is studying
the role mark-to-market accounting had in the failures and troubles at
big U.S. banks. The study was authorized as part of the $700 billion
rescue plan.
THE
TRIGGER?
- Many experts feel that more than any other single event, the refusal
of the U.S. Treasury to rescue Lehman Brothers triggered the current
economic collapse. Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on
September 15. By September 16, the rate banks charged to lend
to
each other had more than doubled. Later that same day, a big
money market fund (Reserve Primary Fund REPS) "broke the buck" when it
announced to shareholders that their net asset value had fallen below
$1 a share after it wrote off $785 million invested in Lehman debt and
commercial paper. This then contributed to a stampede of
clients
redeeming their money from money market funds which, in turn, led to
forced sales of assets like commercial paper. There is also
speculation that the Lehman bankruptcy "pushed AIG over the cliff," as
well as dramatically reduced the capitalization of European
banks. For more insight, take a look at Moment
of Truth by Paul Krugman in the NYT.
BAILOUT BILL
- If you'd like more information on exactly what the bailout bill is
and what it's supposed to accomplish, here's that information right
from the "horse's mouth": www.treasury.gov.
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WHAT
NOW?
- To restore confidence in the banking system, the U.S. Treasury
Department is weighing using at least some of the $700 billion rescue
fund to take ownership stakes in some banks. Banks could request a
capital injection from the Treasury in return for ownership positions.
Doing so would strengthen the banks' balance sheets and could prompt
them to begin lending again. Here are a couple of articles
you
may want to review: U.S.
Treasury May Buy Stakes in Banks (Bloomberg) and Paulson
'actively' eyes bank investment
(CNNMoney.com).
WHAT
ELSE? -
Commercial paper is a form of short-term funding that's critical to
many business operations. In other words, these are
short-term
business loans that many businesses use to pay their everyday operating
expenses. With the market in commercial paper freezing up,
the
Federal Reserve announced a new program under which the Fed will
purchase three-month unsecured and asset-backed commercial paper
directly from eligible issuers. This is as close as the
government has come to lending directly to businesses.
A
BEGINNING SOLUTION?
- At this point it seems highly doubtful that the $700 billion rescue
package will be successful, at least on its own. What will
work? First off, it's important to understand that we're
dealing
with an interconnected web of global financial relationships, meaning
that everyone is at risk, not just a single nation. While our leaders
in Washington are thinking domestically, the solution to the credit
crisis must be global. Secondly, simply throwing money at the problem
may not work. The world does not lack money. Instead,
trillions
of dollars of the world's money is sitting on the sidelines, not being
put to productive use. The challenge is to fashion solutions/reforms
that will draw global capital off the sidelines and back into
productive use. Remember, short of nationalizing the banks,
there
is nothing the federal government can do to force banks to
lend.
The first step in a true rescue may well be to make the market for
future asset-backed securities more transparent and credible, thus
restoring trust so that the bankers will start lending again.
STILL
POSSIBLE?
– Instead of this “Common
Sense”
approach (1 page) from Dave Ramsey, on a bipartisan basis our
government elected to pass a 451-page bill and create a $700 billion
plan with another $150 billion tax breaks thrown in. Do we have a
chance to see a common sense approach? Doubtful since the
current
president and both presidential candidates seem “bound and
determined” to simply throw cash at the problem. That is sure
easy when the money isn't yours! This is not a time for envy, and it's
not a time for politics. It's time for all of us, as Americans, to
stand up, speak out, and fix this mess.
FED
CUTS RATES
– In a unprecedented move and an attempt to stave off fear on
Wall Street, the Fed cut its fed funds rate to 1.5%. The cut from 2%
took the rate to its lowest level in more than four years.
Unfortunately, fear seems to still be around as the market fluctuates,
but continues a steady downward tend.
INTEREST
RATES CUT
WORLD WIDE
– In an effort to stave off a global collapse, central banks in
China, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan joined their Western
counterparts (England, Canada, Sweden and Switzerland and the European
Central Bank) in reducing interest rates in a coordinated effort to
prevent the credit crisis from potentially triggering a global
recession. Markets in the U.S., the U.K. and Europe continued to drop
after the cuts were announced, but Asian markets temporarily made
conservative gains.
GREENSPAN
AND
DERIVATIVES
- Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's longtime enthusiasm for
derivatives and opposition to their regulation is coming under scrutiny
since many believe these complex and difficult-to-analyze securities
fueled the current economic crisis. Greenspan claims the problem is not
that derivative contracts failed, but that the people using them got
greedy. Well, Alan, what about your opposition to their regulation?
GRIM
REMINDERS
- These two events may put into perspective just how grim things have
gotten: Just a little over a year ago, on October 9, 2007,
the
Dow Jones Industrial Average hit its all-time peak of
14,168.53.
On October 9, 2008, the Dow closed at 9,258.1, a 34.7% decline from
just a year earlier. Here's the second "goodie":
The
National Debt Clock in New York City has run out of digits to record
the growing debt, currently around $10.2 trillion. In
response,
the dollar sign has been switched to a digit.
WELLS
FARGO IN,
CITIBANK OUT
- Move one: Citi announced that it was purchasing Wachovia's banking
assets. Move two: Wells Fargo made an offer to buy all of
Wachovia. Move three: Citi charged Wells Fargo with
"tortious interference" and threatened to sue. Move
four:
Citi and Wells sat down to talk things through. Move five:
Citi
walked away from the deal, giving Wells Fargo a green light to buy
Wachovia. Possible move six: Citi says it will
pursue a $60
billion claim against Wells Fargo and Wachovia for breeching the
initial agreement.
INSURANCE
CONSOLIDATION
- With insurer's share values sinking over concern about their capital
needs in the midst of the current credit crisis, we may see an increase
in merger activity. Hartford appears to be in the forefront
right
now. Early last week, Allianz invested $2.5 billion in Hartford, with
Hartford taking pains to explain that it was simply an investment, not
a prelude to a takeover by Allianz. Then, later in the week,
reports surfaced that MetLife had approached Hartford about a merger.
READING
ROOM
- Here are a number of articles we found interesting:
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IT'S
NOT OVER UNTIL IT IS OVER...RULE 151 A - The SEC has
reopened the
comment period
for its proposed rule on federal regulation of index annuities for
another 30 days. If the new rule is approved, the
products
would come under the jurisdiction of the SEC and FINRA.
TAX EXTENSIONS
- As part of the "Emergency Stabilization Act of 2008" rescue package,
Congress extended a number of tax breaks that had expired at the end of
2007:
- A
new AMT "patch" is in place for 2008. This year, AMT
exemption
amounts are $69,950 for married couples filing jointly, $46,200 for
single and head of household taxpayers and $34,975 for married couples
filing separately.
- The
state and local sales tax deduction has been extended though 2009.
- The
$4,000 qualified tuition deduction has also been extended through 2009,
as has the $250 teachers' classroom expense deduction.
- Taxpayers
can make tax-free distributions from IRAs to charities through 2009.
- The
child tax credit was enhanced by making it refundable to the extent of
15% of a taxpayer's earned income in excess of $8,500 (instead of the
previous $12,050).
- The
additional standard deduction available to non-itemizers for real
property taxes was extended through 2009.
GOOD
NEWS
– Oil prices are dropping steadily...now in the $80 per barrel
range. That should result in lower gasoline prices, but it will surely
result in less of our dollars going to the Middle East!
RETIREMENT
MINDED
– A survey of insurance industry professionals by the Association
for Insured Retirement Solutions revealed that 65% believe investor
confidence is either flat or falling. Maybe the good news is that
virtually 100% believe that most retirement-minded Americans will take
action to address the financial crisis...like moving money into safer
investments, becoming more risk adverse and avoiding equity-based
financial products. Think fixed and indexed annuities.
HEALTH
INSURANCE
THINKING - The Council for Affordable Health Insurance
(CAHI)
has developed a pdf
file
that explains their support for using market forces, rather than
government regulation, to solve the U.S. health care crisis by making
health coverage better and more affordable. It also shows how
often members of Congress vote the way CAHI thinks they should vote on
health finance measures.
INSURERS
AND THE
BAILOUT – Well, there seems to be something for everyone
in this
deal. The Treasury Department has posted “financial
institutions wanted”
notices on the Web. They want to hire insurers, banks, savings
associations, credit unions, and security brokers or dealers to help
Treasury manage troubled assets. The bidders must meet fixed income
assets under management and must be “established and regulated
under the laws of the United States or any state, territory, or
possession of the United States.”
GOLD UP
-
Gold has been as high as $925 and has jumped 13% in the past month as
the widening financial crisis batters stock markets across the globe,
spurring investors to buy the safe-haven metal. Silver is also rising.
NO
SURPRISE HERE
- A recent Transamerica survey finds that "Americans' confidence in
their ability to retire comfortably has fallen sharply over the past
year." One interesting finding is that 28% of respondents
want
the federal government to "encourage 401(k) plans to offer to pay
benefits in a form that guarantees retirees a set level of monthly
income for life." That sure sounds like an annuity to us!
MORE
RETIREMENT BAD
NEWS
- Americans' retirement plans have lost in the neighborhood of $2
trillion over the past 15 months, about 20% of their value.
According to a new AARP survey, one in five workers age 45 and older
has stopped saving for retirement in the past year.
BAD LTC
NEWS
- With many people already reluctant to purchase long-term care
insurance, the news that the LTC benefits of some 164,000 Conseco
policyholders may be endangered isn't good news, for those
policyholders in particular or the LTC industry in general.
Those
policies are being transferred from Conseco to an independent trust,
where they may face benefit cuts, premium increases or both.
GOVENMENT
RELATIONS
CHANGE
- NAIFA is splitting its state and federal government relations
operations. We suspect the reason for the split is in
anticipation of creation of a federal insurance regulatory office.
HOME
HEALTH CARE
- MetLife has released its annual
survey of home health and adult day care services, the costs
of
which remain relatively unchanged from last year.
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