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WHERE DO WE BEGIN? – With the world suffering the greatest financial crisis of our time, the causes, problems and solutions are extraordinarily complex. Worse yet, there are a lot of solutions being thrown around, but no one seems to be certain what solutions will work. We'll try to summarize what most people think happened. As far as solutions, we will tell you what is out there, but sure won't predict results.

WORST WEEK, BEST DAY - The Dow closed Friday, Oct. 10, 2008 with its worst week in history. The dismal week wiped out about $2.4 trillion in shareholder wealth. The eight-day losing streak drained 2,400 points from the Dow... about 22%. Then on Monday morning it gained more than 11%, its biggest one-day rally since 1933. The  936 point increase shattered the previous record for a one-day gain of 499. The Dow remains 34.3% below its Oct. 9, 2007 record close of 14,164.53.

FED BANK OWNERSHIP - The Treasury is still pondering how to restore confidence in the banking system and is considering using the $700 billion rescue legislation to take ownership stakes in some banks. Doing so would strengthen the banks' balance sheets and could prompt them to begin lending again. The Federal ownership would be in the form of preferred, thus non-voting stock.

REGULATION BACKLASH - Expect more government regulation of the financial sector in the future. The shift comes after nearly 30 years of policies that leaned toward deregulation. "We now have a collective anger, disgust, over our whole financial system and it's obvious we're going to get a regulatory backlash."

US DOLLAR INJECTION - The Treasury Department plans to invest as much as $250 billion in banks and guarantee newly issued bank debt for three years to battle the financial crisis. The FDIC will guarantee all deposit accounts that do not earn interest and the funds will come from the $700 billion rescue package.

FOREIGN DOLLAR INJECTION - As part of a coordinated effort to boost the troubled financial sector, governments across Europe have pledged $2.6 trillion to guarantee interbank loans and inject liquidity into the banking system. triggered rallies in the region's stock markets. Japan and Australia followed Europe's lead and introduced similar plans. Where does all this money come from?

CAUSES? – It seems the cause of this meltdown is a lot simpler than the solutions. The root causes are the federal government requiring subprime loans and allowing complex financial products to be issued. And it surely was fueled by substantial amounts of greed and easy money.  Summary:
  • In 1971 Congress created a worthy project with noble intentions - the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA). Over strong industry objections, it mandated that all banks meet the credit needs of their entire communities.
  • 1995 saw stronger regulations and performance tests that coerced banks to substantially increase loans to low-income, poverty-area borrowers or face fines or possible restrictions on expansion. These revisions allowed for secularization of CRA loans containing subprime mortgages.
  • By 1997, greedy bankers started bundling good loans with poor ones and sold them as prime packages to institutions here and abroad. That shifted risk from the loan originators, freeing banks to begin pyramiding and making more of these profitable subprime products.
  • Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac joined in the "greed fest." By 2003, these "quasi-governmental agencies" had $1.5 trillion in outstanding debt and a bill was proposed to "rein" things in.
  • In 2005 a bill was proposed to "bring some oversight to Fannie and Freddie," but political bickering and influence peddling blocked its passage. Fannie and Freddie continued to issue loans that had little chance of surviving foreclosure in a down housing market.
  • These subprime products have now permeated the entire world economy.
  • Early in 2008, a new accounting rule required companies to “mark-to-market” (more below) all securities and thus take some $535 billion of write-downs in assets. This scared the hell out of investors and they reacted accordingly.
“MARK-TO-MARKET” - This is very complex.  Most people still believe the real cause of the current collapse is subprime loans, but this rule sure added fuel to the fire. Here is how it worked.
  • When borrowers got loans, the banks typically sold these loans to Wall Street firms, who then repackaged them as bonds backed by the value of a house or property. Wall Street then sold these bonds to mutual funds, pension funds and all sorts of investors around the globe.
  • As house prices dropped in value, so did the value of these bonds, which vary in type as mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), even CDOs of credit default swaps or exotic bonds called CDO-squareds.
  • The accounting rule says that companies that own these bonds must value these bonds each quarter as if they were going to be sold immediately. That process is called “mark to market.”
  • But since these bonds have dropped in value, no one wants them.
  • Companies must then book losses on these bonds even if they did not sell them.
  • “Mark to market” has since been jokingly called “mark to mayhem” and “mark to madness.” The SEC is studying the role mark-to-market accounting had in the failures and troubles at big U.S. banks. The study was authorized as part of the $700 billion rescue plan.
THE TRIGGER? - Many experts feel that more than any other single event, the refusal of the U.S. Treasury to rescue Lehman Brothers triggered the current economic collapse.  Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on September 15.  By September 16, the rate banks charged to lend to each other had more than doubled.  Later that same day, a big money market fund (Reserve Primary Fund REPS) "broke the buck" when it announced to shareholders that their net asset value had fallen below $1 a share after it wrote off $785 million invested in Lehman debt and commercial paper.  This then contributed to a stampede of clients redeeming their money from money market funds which, in turn, led to forced sales of assets like commercial paper.  There is also speculation that the Lehman bankruptcy "pushed AIG over the cliff," as well as dramatically reduced the capitalization of European banks.  For more insight, take a look at Moment of Truth by Paul Krugman in the NYT. 

BAILOUT BILL - If you'd like more information on exactly what the bailout bill is and what it's supposed to accomplish, here's that information right from the "horse's mouth": www.treasury.gov.  



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WHAT NOW? - To restore confidence in the banking system, the U.S. Treasury Department is weighing using at least some of the $700 billion rescue fund to take ownership stakes in some banks. Banks could request a capital injection from the Treasury in return for ownership positions. Doing so would strengthen the banks' balance sheets and could prompt them to begin lending again.  Here are a couple of articles you may want to review:  U.S. Treasury May Buy Stakes in Banks (Bloomberg) and Paulson 'actively' eyes bank investment (CNNMoney.com).   

WHAT ELSE? - Commercial paper is a form of short-term funding that's critical to many business operations.  In other words, these are short-term business loans that many businesses use to pay their everyday operating expenses.  With the market in commercial paper freezing up, the Federal Reserve announced a new program under which the Fed will purchase three-month unsecured and asset-backed commercial paper directly from eligible issuers.  This is as close as the government has come to lending directly to businesses.

A BEGINNING SOLUTION? - At this point it seems highly doubtful that the $700 billion rescue package will be successful, at least on its own.  What will work?  First off, it's important to understand that we're dealing with an interconnected web of global financial relationships, meaning that everyone is at risk, not just a single nation. While our leaders in Washington are thinking domestically, the solution to the credit crisis must be global. Secondly, simply throwing money at the problem may not work. The world does not lack money.  Instead, trillions of dollars of the world's money is sitting on the sidelines, not being put to productive use. The challenge is to fashion solutions/reforms that will draw global capital off the sidelines and back into productive use.  Remember, short of nationalizing the banks, there is nothing the federal government can do to force banks to lend.  The first step in a true rescue may well be to make the market for future asset-backed securities more transparent and credible, thus restoring trust so that the bankers will start lending again.

STILL POSSIBLE? – Instead of this “Common Sense” approach (1 page) from Dave Ramsey, on a bipartisan basis our government elected to pass a 451-page bill and create a $700 billion plan with another $150 billion tax breaks thrown in. Do we have a chance to see a common sense approach?  Doubtful since the current president and both presidential candidates seem “bound and determined” to simply throw cash at the problem. That is sure easy when the money isn't yours! This is not a time for envy, and it's not a time for politics. It's time for all of us, as Americans, to stand up, speak out, and fix this mess.  

FED CUTS RATES – In a unprecedented move and an attempt to stave off fear on Wall Street, the Fed cut its fed funds rate to 1.5%. The cut from 2% took the rate to its lowest level in more than four years. Unfortunately, fear seems to still be around as the market fluctuates, but continues a steady downward tend.

INTEREST RATES CUT WORLD WIDE – In an effort to stave off a global collapse, central banks in China, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan joined their Western counterparts (England, Canada, Sweden and Switzerland and the European Central Bank) in reducing interest rates in a coordinated effort to prevent the credit crisis from potentially triggering a global recession. Markets in the U.S., the U.K. and Europe continued to drop after the cuts were announced, but Asian markets temporarily made conservative gains.

GREENSPAN AND DERIVATIVES - Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's longtime enthusiasm for derivatives and opposition to their regulation is coming under scrutiny since many believe these complex and difficult-to-analyze securities fueled the current economic crisis. Greenspan claims the problem is not that derivative contracts failed, but that the people using them got greedy. Well, Alan, what about your opposition to their regulation?

GRIM REMINDERS - These two events may put into perspective just how grim things have gotten:  Just a little over a year ago, on October 9, 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit its all-time peak of 14,168.53.  On October 9, 2008, the Dow closed at 9,258.1, a 34.7% decline from just a year earlier.  Here's the second "goodie":  The National Debt Clock in New York City has run out of digits to record the growing debt, currently around $10.2 trillion.  In response, the dollar sign has been switched to a digit.

WELLS FARGO IN, CITIBANK OUT - Move one: Citi announced that it was purchasing Wachovia's banking assets.  Move two: Wells Fargo made an offer to buy all of Wachovia.  Move three:  Citi charged Wells Fargo with "tortious interference" and threatened to sue.  Move four:  Citi and Wells sat down to talk things through.  Move five: Citi walked away from the deal, giving Wells Fargo a green light to buy Wachovia.  Possible move six:  Citi says it will pursue a $60 billion claim against Wells Fargo and Wachovia for breeching the initial agreement.

INSURANCE CONSOLIDATION - With insurer's share values sinking over concern about their capital needs in the midst of the current credit crisis, we may see an increase in merger activity.  Hartford appears to be in the forefront right now. Early last week, Allianz invested $2.5 billion in Hartford, with Hartford taking pains to explain that it was simply an investment, not a prelude to a takeover by Allianz.  Then, later in the week, reports surfaced that MetLife had approached Hartford about a merger.

READING ROOM - Here are a number of articles we found interesting:


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IT'S NOT OVER UNTIL IT IS OVER...RULE 151 A - The SEC has reopened the comment period for its proposed rule on federal regulation of index annuities for another 30 days. If the new rule is approved, the products would come under the jurisdiction of the SEC and FINRA.

TAX EXTENSIONS
- As part of the "Emergency Stabilization Act of 2008" rescue package, Congress extended a number of tax breaks that had expired at the end of 2007:
  • A new AMT "patch" is in place for 2008.  This year, AMT exemption amounts are $69,950 for married couples filing jointly, $46,200 for single and head of household taxpayers and $34,975 for married couples filing separately.
  • The state and local sales tax deduction has been extended though 2009.
  • The $4,000 qualified tuition deduction has also been extended through 2009, as has the $250 teachers' classroom expense deduction.
  • Taxpayers can make tax-free distributions from IRAs to charities through 2009.
  • The child tax credit was enhanced by making it refundable to the extent of 15% of a taxpayer's earned income in excess of $8,500 (instead of the previous $12,050).
  • The additional standard deduction available to non-itemizers for real property taxes was extended through 2009.
GOOD NEWS – Oil prices are dropping steadily...now in the $80 per barrel range. That should result in lower gasoline prices, but it will surely result in less of our dollars going to the Middle East!

RETIREMENT MINDED – A survey of insurance industry professionals by the Association for Insured Retirement Solutions revealed that 65% believe investor confidence is either flat or falling. Maybe the good news is that virtually 100% believe that most retirement-minded Americans will take action to address the financial crisis...like moving money into safer investments, becoming more risk adverse and avoiding equity-based financial products. Think fixed and indexed annuities.

HEALTH INSURANCE THINKING - The Council for Affordable Health Insurance (CAHI) has developed a pdf file that explains their support for using market forces, rather than government regulation, to solve the U.S. health care crisis by making health coverage better and more affordable.  It also shows how often members of Congress vote the way CAHI thinks they should vote on health finance measures.  

INSURERS AND THE BAILOUT – Well, there seems to be something for everyone in this deal. The Treasury Department has posted “financial institutions wanted” notices on the Web. They want to hire insurers, banks, savings associations, credit unions, and security brokers or dealers to help Treasury manage troubled assets. The bidders must meet fixed income assets under management and must be “established and regulated under the laws of the United States or any state, territory, or possession of the United States.”   

GOLD UP - Gold has been as high as $925 and has jumped 13% in the past month as the widening financial crisis batters stock markets across the globe, spurring investors to buy the safe-haven metal. Silver is also rising.

NO SURPRISE HERE - A recent Transamerica survey finds that "Americans' confidence in their ability to retire comfortably has fallen sharply over the past year."  One interesting finding is that 28% of respondents want the federal government to "encourage 401(k) plans to offer to pay benefits in a form that guarantees retirees a set level of monthly income for life."  That sure sounds like an annuity to us!

MORE RETIREMENT BAD NEWS - Americans' retirement plans have lost in the neighborhood of $2 trillion over the past 15 months, about 20% of their value.  According to a new AARP survey, one in five workers age 45 and older has stopped saving for retirement in the past year.

BAD LTC NEWS - With many people already reluctant to purchase long-term care insurance, the news that the LTC benefits of some 164,000 Conseco policyholders may be endangered isn't good news, for those policyholders in particular or the LTC industry in general.  Those policies are being transferred from Conseco to an independent trust, where they may face benefit cuts, premium increases or both.

GOVENMENT RELATIONS CHANGE - NAIFA is splitting its state and federal government relations operations.  We suspect the reason for the split is in anticipation of creation of a federal insurance regulatory office.

HOME HEALTH CARE - MetLife has released its annual survey of home health and adult day care services, the costs of which remain relatively unchanged from last year.  


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