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November 1, 2009
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ECONOMY GROWS, RECESSION OVER
– The AP reports the U.S. economy grew at a 3.5% pace in the
third quarter, the best showing in two years, fueled by
government-supported spending on cars and homes. It's the strongest
signal yet that the economy has entered a new, though fragile, phase of
recovery and that the worst recession since the 1930s has ended.
IS THE RECESSION REALLY OVER?
- Much better to have 3.5% GDP growth than -0.7 (like we did last
quarter). But this recovery is still really shaky. Why? Much of the GDP
growth is from federal government spending, but the percentage rate of
both federal and local government spending is decreasing. Further, it
appears that local government will be a drag on the economy for some
time to come.
IT AIN'T FIXED YET
– Fortune reports that according to a panel of high-profile Wall
Street figures, the economy may be showing signs of life, but that
doesn't mean the financial system is fixed or healthy growth has
returned. Problems? The government being unlikely to pass regulation
that effectively regulates the financial-services industry and the
Federal Reserve's reluctance to draw down the flood of money it
injected into the economy.
JOBS LESS THAN EXPECTED
- The number of Americans claiming jobless benefits for the first time
dropped less than expected last week, evidence that the labor market
remains weak even as the economy is recovering. The Labor Department
said Thursday its tally of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment
insurance fell by 1,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 530,000. Isn't
there something weird about the term "jobless recovery"?
STIMULUS OVERSTATEMENTS
– The AP "ran its own numbers" and reports that progress reports
on President Barack Obama's economic recovery plan overstates by
thousands the number of jobs created or saved through the stimulus
program. Jobs tied to the $787 billion stimulus program were
claimed to be more than 30,000, but that figure is overstated by least
5,000 jobs in the AP review of a sample of stimulus contracts. There's
no evidence the White House sought to inflate job numbers in the
report, but administration officials seized on the 30,000 figure as
evidence that the stimulus program was on its way toward fulfilling the
president's promise of creating or saving 3.5M jobs by the end of next
year.
WHERE IS RECOVERY MONEY GOING? - Check it out at www.recovery.org
for a state by state breakdown. The Website is a service of Onvia
and is tracking American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) spending
by Federal, State and Local agencies. It provides detailed
information about what is happening in our States and Municipalities -
from the moment ARRA funds are approved, to a government agency's
issuance of a Bid or RFP, through contract award to a business.
STOCKS RETREAT
– After rising above 10,000 for a few days and having its biggest
one-day percentage gain in 3 months (2%) on Thursday, the Dow fell
2.51% to 9,712.73 on Friday...a 249.85 loss for the day. Concerns are
that the economic recovery won't be robust enough to sustain the
seven-month stock rally, while financials sank on renewed worries about
Citigroup's weakening balance sheet. "You need growth, you need a
healthy financial system to have a healthy economy. There are questions
out there about how things go from here. Right now the government is
fueling the system with cash. That can't last forever."
WSJ, DON'T EXTEND TARP
- The government's $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program will
expire at the end of the year without an extension authorized by
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. The Wall Street Journal editorial
board argues that the program should not be extended and that it has
become an all-purpose rescue fund. "Today there is little evidence that
the government needs or can prudently manage" the TARP, the editorial
board writes.
MORTGAGE APPS DOWN
- The number of mortgage applications filed fell for the third
consecutive week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The
MBA's index of mortgage application volume declined 12.3% in the week
ended Oct. 23.
NEW HOME SALES DROP -
After having climbed for five consecutive months, sales of new homes in
September dropped 3.6% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 402,000.
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HISTORIC MOMENT
- House Democrats unveiled sweeping legislation to extend health care
coverage to millions who lack it, while creating a new option of
government-run insurance. A vote is likely this week (yes, this week)
on the plan patterned closely on President Barack Obama's plan. Speaker
Nancy Pelosi said Congress was "on the cusp of delivering on the
promise of making affordable, quality health insurance available to
every American."
OR BUREAUCRATIC MONSTROSITY BEING RAILROADED
- Have Americans ever voted for this? Does the House really care what
the public thinks? Further, do they even know what they are doing? They
would have to devour 221 pages a day to have read this 1,990 page
life-changing legislation in its entirety before it comes to a vote,
promised for before Veterans Day, November 11.
HEALTHCARE WASTE
- One thing is for sure...the cost of proposed reforms (whatever they
turn out to be) could be at least partially paid for by fixing obvious
problems in the current system. Estimates are that our current
healthcare system wastes between $505 billion and $850 billion each
year. Here are the "biggies": unnecessary care, such as the
overuse of antibiotics and lab tests, wastes $200 to $300 billion
annually, fraud takes another estimated $200 billion a year and
administrative inefficiency and redundant paperwork account for around
$100 to $150 billion in wasted spending each year.
FINE PRINT
- Kaiser Health News reports that despite claims the Senate bill will
limit what those in the lower and middle income groups will pay for
health insurance, "The fine print shows that, over time, the premium
costs could rise well beyond those caps." Reason? "The cost of coverage
would shift from a percentage of income to a percentage of the premium,
no matter how high the premiums go." This will be a big, unpleasant
surprise for the working middle class. We predict lots more unpleasant
surprises from a government that appears to be totally out of touch and
out of control.
PUBLIC OPTION...SOLUTION IN SEARCH OF A PROBLEM
– There is no evidence that adding another government-run health
plan to the slew of existing "public options" (Medicare, Medicaid,
SCHIP) would do anything to improve competition, control costs and
certainly not increase quality. So contends Tomas J. Philipson, the
Daniel Levin Professor of Public Policy at The University of Chicago in
What's Wrong With Private Insurance?. Read this insightful article at www.forbes.com.
FACT CHECK: HEALTH INSURERS' PROFITS
- As part of the health care reform debate, we've heard insurers'
profits referred to as immoral and obscene, but what are health
insurers' profit margins? According to the AP, "Health insurance
profit margins typically run about 6%, give or take a point or two.
That's anemic compared with other forms of insurance and a broad array
of industries, even some beleaguered ones. Profits barely exceeded 2%
of revenues in the latest annual measure. Health insurers posted a 2.2%
profit margin last year, placing them 35th of 53 industries on the
Fortune 500 list. As is typical, other health sectors did much better
-- drugs and medical products and services were both in the top 10. The
railroads brought in a 12.6% profit margin. Leading the list: network
and other communications equipment, at 20.4%."
BROADER OVERSIGHT FOR THE FED
- The House Financial Services Committee has released draft legislation
that would give the Federal Reserve more oversight authority, including
the power to require systemically important firms to shrink. The
measure is expected to be highly controversial because many have
criticized the Fed for contributing to the global financial crisis.
Some think the bill should be for "broader oversight OF the FED."
DIVIDING IN HALF
- ING has announced that it intends to split its banking and insurance
operations and divest itself of the insurance operations.
CASH FOR CLUNKERS
- Automotive Web site Edmunds.com reports that a total of 690,000 new
vehicles were sold under the Cash for Clunkers program last summer, but
only 125,000 of those were vehicles that would not have been sold
anyway. This means the government paid $24,000 for each additional
vehicle sale. However, auto sales added 1.7% points to the nation's
gross domestic product growth for the third quarter. Further,
proponents say that the purpose of the program was to be a catalyst to
kick-start the economy and that the extra production added this year
was a boost to the economy. In related news, Ford reported a
surprise profit for the third quarter, helped by a bump in sales from
the Cash for Clunkers program, as well as a reduced cost structure and
problems at its U.S. rivals.
REAL ESTATE GAP
– According to Pru Real Estate, it will take as much as $825
billion in capital to fill a commercial real estate debt funding gap in
the United States over the coming years. "Aggressive lending and
valuations during 2005 to 2008 resulted in a large body of commercial
properties that will very likely not qualify for mortgages sufficient
to pay off existing debt." The banks and securitization programs,
the most aggressive providers of commercial real estate debt then,
originated $2.3 trillion of loans during that period. With Wall Street
securitization programs largely dismantled and bank lenders severely
constrained by legacy balance sheets, the demand for mortgage debt will
greatly exceed supply. "We believe that a large of amount of capital
will need to be injected into the system, over an extended period of
time, to make up for this shortfall, and this is in addition to the
approximately $1.5 trillion of new first mortgage debt that will be
required."
MORE RED FLAGS ON COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
- U.S regulators on Friday encouraged banks to modify troubled
commercial real estate loans, which are seen as a looming danger spot
for the banking industry. The regulators issued guidance to financial
institutions and said "prudent" loan workouts are often in the best
interest of both the borrower and the bank itself.
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AGENT SAFE HARBOR
- The House Financial Services Committee has agreed to an amendment
that could ease the effects of a "standard of care" provision on
producers who sell a limited menu of products. "The sale of only
proprietary or other limited range of products by a broker or dealer
shall not, in and of itself, be considered a violation of the fiduciary
standard that will govern sales of securities products by the
Securities and Exchange Commission going forward." Both the National
Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors and the Association for
Advanced Life Underwriting support the amendment.
CHANGES FOR "RETURN OF PREMIUM TERM" POLICES
– The ROP term life insurance product is about to get a whole lot
more expensive due to new regulation (Actuarial Guideline 45 from
National Association of Insurance Commissioners) that takes effect on
Jan. 1, 2010. Expect significant increases in the cost of ROP policies,
more uniform and fair paybacks for policies terminated early,
availability in more states and fewer companies selling ROP policies.
If you like this product, time is running out before the new, higher
premiums kick in.
UNWANTED RMDs
- Some people were unaware that they were not required to take minimum
distributions from retirement plans and IRAs this year and took what
are now unwanted distributions. While they had a 60-day window to
roll the funds back to an IRA or retirement plan and avoid taxation,
many did not know they had this option until the 60-day window has
closed. In IRS Notice 2009-82, the IRS grants a rollover
extension...unwanted 2009 distributions already received may be
eligible for rollover until November 30 or 60 days after receipt,
whichever is later. Click here for more detail from Investment News.
2010 401(k) CONTRIBUTION LIMITS
- While the recession could have forced a reduction in 2010 401(k)
contribution limits, the IRS has announced that 2010 limits will remain
the same as in 2009: a maximum of $16,500 if under age 50;
$22,000 if age 50 or above.
HOMEOWNER TAX CREDIT -
A deal has been reached in the Senate that would extend the homebuyer
tax credit. The $8,000 credit for first-time buyers would be made
available for a longer period, and a new credit of up to $6,500 for
some existing homeowners would be created. The new credit would go to
home buyers who have lived in their present place of residence for five
of the past eight years. The proposed bill still needs to be passed by
the House. On a related note, the IRS is looking into more than 100,000
doubtful claims for the first-time homeowner tax credit, together with
167 "criminal schemes" involving the credit.
PAY PLANS
– According to the Wall Street Journal, Kenneth Feinberg, the
Treasury Department's pay czar, reduced total compensation at companies
that received a substantial amount of government aid but actually
increased regular salaries. The Treasury Department assigned Feinberg
to reduce "excessive" pay and link compensation to the companies'
long-term performance. Officials say Feinberg met his goals.
RE-RETIRING FOR SOCIAL SECURITY
- People who began collecting Social Security at age 62 can restart
their retirement benefits at 70 and get 76% more a month. The catch is
that they must repay what they have already received, but without
interest. It may make good sense for healthy retires...you have to live
long enough for the increased monthly income to equal the lump sum you
will need to pay to the Social Security Administration.
ROLLOVERS
- Hewitt Associates report that increased efforts to warn Americans
about the harmful financial consequences of cashing out their 401(k)
plans have had little impact in changing their behavior. In 2008, 46%
of workers took a cash distribution from their 401(k) plan when they
left their job, a figure that has remained virtually unchanged since
2005.
HOUSE BILL MAY HAVE LTC PLAN
- House health care legislation expected within days is likely to
include a new long-term care insurance program to help seniors and
disabled people stay out of nursing homes. The new proposal is called
the Community Living Assistance Services and Supports Act or CLASS Act
and, in return for modest monthly premiums while they are working,
people would receive a cash benefit of at least $50 a day if they
become disabled. The money could be used to pay a home care attendant,
purchase equipment and supplies, make home improvements such as adding
bathroom railings, or defray the costs of nursing home care.
MEANWHILE LTC RATES CONTINUE TO RISE
- MetLife Mature Market Institute reports that the cost of a private
nursing home room increased 3.3%, to $219 per day, or $79,935 per year,
the cost of staying in an assisted living facility rose 3.3%, to $3,131
per month and home health care aide costs increased 5%, to $21 per
hour. Costs varied widely from market to market. Daily rates for a
private room in a nursing home ranged from $132 in Louisiana, the least
expensive state, to $584 per day in Alaska, the most expensive.
ESTATE TAX UPDATE
- At this point, it seems pretty certain that we will not see permanent
estate tax reform this year. Instead, Congress will act before
the end of this year to extend the 2009 estate tax levels to next year
($3.5M personal exemption and a 45% maximum tax rate).
SKIN IN THE GAME
- It's generally reassuring to investors to find that mutual fund
managers have some "skin in the game" by investing in the funds that
they run. Here's an eye opener...according to Morningstar, a
majority (51%) of fund managers do not have a single dollar of their
personal assets invested in the funds they manage. Morningstar's
findings also reveal that funds whose managers have some "skin in the
game" perform better on average than funds whose managers own no shares.
SOROS FOR REGULATORY REFORM...BUT NOT NOW
- George Soros, the billionaire investor, said near-equilibrium
conditions in the global financial system are needed before
implementation of permanent reforms should take place. "We are still in
the first phase of this delicate maneuver. This is not the right time
to enact permanent reforms. The financial system and the economy are
very far from equilibrium, and they cannot be brought back to
near-equilibrium conditions by a straightforward corrective move." He
said future changes may include restrictions or outright bans on credit
default swaps and other derivatives. Probably wants to clean his
portfolio out before reform.
INFLATION AND FOOD
– This from the National Inflation Association (NIA): While most
mainstream economists are warning of deflationary threats to the U.S.
economy, it is our belief that massive price inflation has already
begun. The Federal Reserve's policy of massive monetary inflation in
2009 has caused the Dow Jones to bounce over 50% from its low, oil to
rise 100% from its low, and gold to surge to a new all-time high.
Health insurance premium and college tuitions are rising. Despite this,
agricultural commodities have for the most part been left behind and
remain at historically depressed levels. With crude oil back above $80
per barrel, we will soon see a renewed interest in alternative energy.
This will create increased demand for wheat, corn and sugar, which are
used to make ethanol and other biofuels. A massive rise in agriculture
prices could result. See more, as well as NIA thoughts on real estate,
at www.reuters.com.
©
Copyright 2009 Financial Services Online, Inc.
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