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November 1, 2009 Edition


ECONOMY GROWS, RECESSION OVER – The AP reports the U.S. economy grew at a 3.5% pace in the third quarter, the best showing in two years, fueled by government-supported spending on cars and homes. It's the strongest signal yet that the economy has entered a new, though fragile, phase of recovery and that the worst recession since the 1930s has ended.

IS THE RECESSION REALLY OVER? - Much better to have 3.5% GDP growth than -0.7 (like we did last quarter). But this recovery is still really shaky. Why? Much of the GDP growth is from federal government spending, but the percentage rate of both federal and local government spending is decreasing. Further, it appears that local government will be a drag on the economy for some time to come.

IT AIN'T FIXED YET – Fortune reports that according to a panel of high-profile Wall Street figures, the economy may be showing signs of life, but that doesn't mean the financial system is fixed or healthy growth has returned. Problems? The government being unlikely to pass regulation that effectively regulates the financial-services industry and the Federal Reserve's reluctance to draw down the flood of money it injected into the economy.

JOBS LESS THAN EXPECTED - The number of Americans claiming jobless benefits for the first time dropped less than expected last week, evidence that the labor market remains weak even as the economy is recovering. The Labor Department said Thursday its tally of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment insurance fell by 1,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 530,000.  Isn't there something weird about the term "jobless recovery"?

STIMULUS OVERSTATEMENTS – The AP "ran its own numbers" and reports that progress reports on President Barack Obama's economic recovery plan overstates by thousands the number of jobs created or saved through the stimulus program.  Jobs tied to the $787 billion stimulus program were claimed to be more than 30,000, but that figure is overstated by least 5,000 jobs in the AP review of a sample of stimulus contracts. There's no evidence the White House sought to inflate job numbers in the report, but administration officials seized on the 30,000 figure as evidence that the stimulus program was on its way toward fulfilling the president's promise of creating or saving 3.5M jobs by the end of next year.

WHERE IS RECOVERY MONEY GOING? - Check it out at www.recovery.org for a state by state breakdown.  The Website is a service of Onvia and is tracking American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) spending by Federal, State and Local agencies.  It provides detailed information about what is happening in our States and Municipalities - from the moment ARRA funds are approved, to a government agency's issuance of a Bid or RFP, through contract award to a business.

STOCKS RETREAT – After rising above 10,000 for a few days and having its biggest one-day percentage gain in 3 months (2%) on Thursday, the Dow fell 2.51% to 9,712.73 on Friday...a 249.85 loss for the day. Concerns are that the economic recovery won't be robust enough to sustain the seven-month stock rally, while financials sank on renewed worries about Citigroup's weakening balance sheet. "You need growth, you need a healthy financial system to have a healthy economy. There are questions out there about how things go from here. Right now the government is fueling the system with cash. That can't last forever."

WSJ, DON'T EXTEND TARP - The government's $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program will expire at the end of the year without an extension authorized by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. The Wall Street Journal editorial board argues that the program should not be extended and that it has become an all-purpose rescue fund. "Today there is little evidence that the government needs or can prudently manage" the TARP, the editorial board writes.

MORTGAGE APPS DOWN - The number of mortgage applications filed fell for the third consecutive week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The MBA's index of mortgage application volume declined 12.3% in the week ended Oct. 23.

NEW HOME SALES DROP - After having climbed for five consecutive months, sales of new homes in September dropped 3.6% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 402,000.


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HISTORIC MOMENT - House Democrats unveiled sweeping legislation to extend health care coverage to millions who lack it, while creating a new option of government-run insurance. A vote is likely this week (yes, this week) on the plan patterned closely on President Barack Obama's plan. Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Congress was "on the cusp of delivering on the promise of making affordable, quality health insurance available to every American."

OR BUREAUCRATIC MONSTROSITY BEING RAILROADED - Have Americans ever voted for this? Does the House really care what the public thinks? Further, do they even know what they are doing? They would have to devour 221 pages a day to have read this 1,990 page life-changing legislation in its entirety before it comes to a vote, promised for before Veterans Day, November 11.

HEALTHCARE WASTE - One thing is for sure...the cost of proposed reforms (whatever they turn out to be) could be at least partially paid for by fixing obvious problems in the current system.  Estimates are that our current healthcare system wastes between $505 billion and $850 billion each year.  Here are the "biggies":  unnecessary care, such as the overuse of antibiotics and lab tests, wastes $200 to $300 billion annually, fraud takes another estimated $200 billion a year and administrative inefficiency and redundant paperwork account for around $100 to $150 billion in wasted spending each year.

FINE PRINT - Kaiser Health News reports that despite claims the Senate bill will limit what those in the lower and middle income groups will pay for health insurance, "The fine print shows that, over time, the premium costs could rise well beyond those caps." Reason? "The cost of coverage would shift from a percentage of income to a percentage of the premium, no matter how high the premiums go." This will be a big, unpleasant surprise for the working middle class. We predict lots more unpleasant surprises from a government that appears to be totally out of touch and out of control.

PUBLIC OPTION...SOLUTION IN SEARCH OF A PROBLEM – There is no evidence that adding another government-run health plan to the slew of existing "public options" (Medicare, Medicaid, SCHIP) would do anything to improve competition, control costs and certainly not increase quality. So contends Tomas J. Philipson, the Daniel Levin Professor of Public Policy at The University of Chicago in What's Wrong With Private Insurance?. Read this insightful article at www.forbes.com.

FACT CHECK: HEALTH INSURERS' PROFITS - As part of the health care reform debate, we've heard insurers' profits referred to as immoral and obscene, but what are health insurers' profit margins?  According to the AP, "Health insurance profit margins typically run about 6%, give or take a point or two. That's anemic compared with other forms of insurance and a broad array of industries, even some beleaguered ones. Profits barely exceeded 2% of revenues in the latest annual measure. Health insurers posted a 2.2% profit margin last year, placing them 35th of 53 industries on the Fortune 500 list. As is typical, other health sectors did much better -- drugs and medical products and services were both in the top 10. The railroads brought in a 12.6% profit margin. Leading the list: network and other communications equipment, at 20.4%."  

BROADER OVERSIGHT FOR THE FED - The House Financial Services Committee has released draft legislation that would give the Federal Reserve more oversight authority, including the power to require systemically important firms to shrink. The measure is expected to be highly controversial because many have criticized the Fed for contributing to the global financial crisis. Some think the bill should be for "broader oversight OF the FED."

DIVIDING IN HALF - ING has announced that it intends to split its banking and insurance operations and divest itself of the insurance operations.

CASH FOR CLUNKERS - Automotive Web site Edmunds.com reports that a total of 690,000 new vehicles were sold under the Cash for Clunkers program last summer, but only 125,000 of those were vehicles that would not have been sold anyway. This means the government paid $24,000 for each additional vehicle sale. However, auto sales added 1.7% points to the nation's gross domestic product growth for the third quarter. Further, proponents say that the purpose of the program was to be a catalyst to kick-start the economy and that the extra production added this year was a boost to the economy.  In related news, Ford reported a surprise profit for the third quarter, helped by a bump in sales from the Cash for Clunkers program, as well as a reduced cost structure and problems at its U.S. rivals.

REAL ESTATE GAP – According to Pru Real Estate, it will take as much as $825 billion in capital to fill a commercial real estate debt funding gap in the United States over the coming years. "Aggressive lending and valuations during 2005 to 2008 resulted in a large body of commercial properties that will very likely not qualify for mortgages sufficient to pay off existing debt."  The banks and securitization programs, the most aggressive providers of commercial real estate debt then, originated $2.3 trillion of loans during that period. With Wall Street securitization programs largely dismantled and bank lenders severely constrained by legacy balance sheets, the demand for mortgage debt will greatly exceed supply. "We believe that a large of amount of capital will need to be injected into the system, over an extended period of time, to make up for this shortfall, and this is in addition to the approximately $1.5 trillion of new first mortgage debt that will be required."

MORE RED FLAGS ON COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - U.S regulators on Friday encouraged banks to modify troubled commercial real estate loans, which are seen as a looming danger spot for the banking industry. The regulators issued guidance to financial institutions and said "prudent" loan workouts are often in the best interest of both the borrower and the bank itself.


AGENT SAFE HARBOR - The House Financial Services Committee has agreed to an amendment that could ease the effects of a "standard of care" provision on producers who sell a limited menu of products. "The sale of only proprietary or other limited range of products by a broker or dealer shall not, in and of itself, be considered a violation of the fiduciary standard that will govern sales of securities products by the Securities and Exchange Commission going forward." Both the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors and the Association for Advanced Life Underwriting support the amendment.

CHANGES FOR "RETURN OF PREMIUM TERM" POLICES – The ROP term life insurance product is about to get a whole lot more expensive due to new regulation (Actuarial Guideline 45 from National Association of Insurance Commissioners) that takes effect on Jan. 1, 2010. Expect significant increases in the cost of ROP policies, more uniform and fair paybacks for policies terminated early, availability in more states and fewer companies selling ROP policies. If you like this product, time is running out before the new, higher premiums kick in.

UNWANTED RMDs - Some people were unaware that they were not required to take minimum distributions from retirement plans and IRAs this year and took what are now unwanted distributions.  While they had a 60-day window to roll the funds back to an IRA or retirement plan and avoid taxation, many did not know they had this option until the 60-day window has closed.  In IRS Notice 2009-82, the IRS grants a rollover extension...unwanted 2009 distributions already received may be eligible for rollover until November 30 or 60 days after receipt, whichever is later.  Click here for more detail from Investment News.  

2010 401(k) CONTRIBUTION LIMITS - While the recession could have forced a reduction in 2010 401(k) contribution limits, the IRS has announced that 2010 limits will remain the same as in 2009:  a maximum of $16,500 if under age 50; $22,000 if age 50 or above.

HOMEOWNER TAX CREDIT - A deal has been reached in the Senate that would extend the homebuyer tax credit. The $8,000 credit for first-time buyers would be made available for a longer period, and a new credit of up to $6,500 for some existing homeowners would be created. The new credit would go to home buyers who have lived in their present place of residence for five of the past eight years. The proposed bill still needs to be passed by the House. On a related note, the IRS is looking into more than 100,000 doubtful claims for the first-time homeowner tax credit, together with 167 "criminal schemes" involving the credit.

PAY PLANS – According to the Wall Street Journal, Kenneth Feinberg, the Treasury Department's pay czar, reduced total compensation at companies that received a substantial amount of government aid but actually increased regular salaries. The Treasury Department assigned Feinberg to reduce "excessive" pay and link compensation to the companies' long-term performance. Officials say Feinberg met his goals.

RE-RETIRING FOR SOCIAL SECURITY - People who began collecting Social Security at age 62 can restart their retirement benefits at 70 and get 76% more a month. The catch is that they must repay what they have already received, but without interest. It may make good sense for healthy retires...you have to live long enough for the increased monthly income to equal the lump sum you will need to pay to the Social Security Administration.

ROLLOVERS - Hewitt Associates report that increased efforts to warn Americans about the harmful financial consequences of cashing out their 401(k) plans have had little impact in changing their behavior. In 2008, 46% of workers took a cash distribution from their 401(k) plan when they left their job, a figure that has remained virtually unchanged since 2005.

HOUSE BILL MAY HAVE LTC PLAN - House health care legislation expected within days is likely to include a new long-term care insurance program to help seniors and disabled people stay out of nursing homes. The new proposal is called the Community Living Assistance Services and Supports Act or CLASS Act and, in return for modest monthly premiums while they are working, people would receive a cash benefit of at least $50 a day if they become disabled. The money could be used to pay a home care attendant, purchase equipment and supplies, make home improvements such as adding bathroom railings, or defray the costs of nursing home care.

MEANWHILE LTC RATES CONTINUE TO RISE - MetLife Mature Market Institute reports that the cost of a private nursing home room increased 3.3%, to $219 per day, or $79,935 per year, the cost of staying in an assisted living facility rose 3.3%, to $3,131 per month and home health care aide costs increased 5%, to $21 per hour. Costs varied widely from market to market. Daily rates for a private room in a nursing home ranged from $132 in Louisiana, the least expensive state, to $584 per day in Alaska, the most expensive.

ESTATE TAX UPDATE - At this point, it seems pretty certain that we will not see permanent estate tax reform this year.  Instead, Congress will act before the end of this year to extend the 2009 estate tax levels to next year ($3.5M personal exemption and a 45% maximum tax rate).

SKIN IN THE GAME - It's generally reassuring to investors to find that mutual fund managers have some "skin in the game" by investing in the funds that they run.  Here's an eye opener...according to Morningstar, a majority (51%) of fund managers do not have a single dollar of their personal assets invested in the funds they manage.  Morningstar's findings also reveal that funds whose managers have some "skin in the game" perform better on average than funds whose managers own no shares.

SOROS FOR REGULATORY REFORM...BUT NOT NOW - George Soros, the billionaire investor, said near-equilibrium conditions in the global financial system are needed before implementation of permanent reforms should take place. "We are still in the first phase of this delicate maneuver. This is not the right time to enact permanent reforms. The financial system and the economy are very far from equilibrium, and they cannot be brought back to near-equilibrium conditions by a straightforward corrective move." He said future changes may include restrictions or outright bans on credit default swaps and other derivatives. Probably wants to clean his portfolio out before reform.

INFLATION AND FOOD – This from the National Inflation Association (NIA): While most mainstream economists are warning of deflationary threats to the U.S. economy, it is our belief that massive price inflation has already begun. The Federal Reserve's policy of massive monetary inflation in 2009 has caused the Dow Jones to bounce over 50% from its low, oil to rise 100% from its low, and gold to surge to a new all-time high. Health insurance premium and college tuitions are rising. Despite this, agricultural commodities have for the most part been left behind and remain at historically depressed levels. With crude oil back above $80 per barrel, we will soon see a renewed interest in alternative energy. This will create increased demand for wheat, corn and sugar, which are used to make ethanol and other biofuels. A massive rise in agriculture prices could result. See more, as well as NIA thoughts on real estate, at www.reuters.com.

 
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