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December 1, 2008
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IT'S OFFICIAL
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has made it
official...the U.S. has been in a recession since December
2007.
The NBER is a private group of leading economists charged with dating
the start and end of economic downturns. The longest
post-WWII
recessions on record so far ran 16 months, from November 1973 to March
1975 and from July 1981 to November 1982.
WHO
APPROVED ALL THIS?
- Congress approved $700 billion to help the financial system, but the
government has pledged more than $7.4 trillion in taxpayer funds.
Further, the regulators are committing the money without disclosing
collateral received or who is getting the loans. "Whether it's lending
or spending, it's tax dollars that are going out the window, and we end
up holding collateral we don't know anything about," said Rep. Scott
Garrett, R-N.J. "The time has come that we consider what sort of
limitations we should be placing on the Fed so that authority returns
to elected officials as opposed to appointed ones." Well,
Representative Garrett, the elected officials aren't much better. This
country is radically "upside-down" with debts.
TALF
- Lot of
new acronyms are appearing in the financial lexicon. The Term
Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) is the Federal Reserve's
new arm which will extend up to $200 billion in nonrecourse loans to
holders of asset-backed securities backed by consumer and
small-business loans. Funding will include $20 billion from the
Treasury Department's Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). TALF is a
government effort to reward risk taking in hopes of unlocking credit
markets. If we remember correctly, the last time the government
encouraged lenders to take risky loans we ended up with the subprime
mess and resulting financial meltdown. But what do we know?
AUDIT
OF TARP
- Expect the first audit of the Treasury Department's $700
billion economic-rescue program (TARP) to criticize the program's
implementation, as well as other aspects of the plan.
Government
Accountability Office will also comment on the speed at which the plan
was put together...not sure that will be an excuse for the lack of
implementation or condemnation of the lack of thought that went into
TARP.
HEDGE
FUND TROUBLES
- Lehman and its PricewaterhouseCoopers administrators are
refusing to give any information on four hedge funds held by Lehman.
The U.S. hedge funds said they would likely close in December if they
were not allowed access to information about their frozen assets.
OBAMA
TAPS VOLKER
- In a move met by approval from Wall Street, President-elect
Obama has selected former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker to
chair a White House advisory board charged with stabilizing financial
markets and fighting the recession.
GEITHNER
TO HEAD TREASURY
- In another praised appointment, President-elect Obama has
appointed Timothy F. Geithner, current president of the Federal Reserve
Bank of New York, to head the Treasury. SIFMA says he has been
intricately involved in the handling of the financial crisis and, "He's
one of a core group of government executives who's been part of every
decision." Our question is, is that a good thing or a bad thing? We
don't know what other options are available, but it sure appears that
we are appointing folks who got us in this mess in the first place.
SHRINKING
ECONOMY
- The economy shrank last quarter at its quickest pace in seven
years, consumer spending hit a 28-year low, home prices continued to
fall, and corporate profits fell for a second consecutive quarter. Many
believe we are entering the worst recession since...well, since
forever.
"MARKET-ORIENTED"
ADVISORS - The
Washington Post
reports that President-elect Obama is assembling a group of financial
advisors who have a track record of promoting policies that combine
limited government spending with free-market philosophies. "The team's
outlook contrasts with what is widely seen as current thinking on the
economic crisis, which calls for more government spending and
regulation." Let's hope so!
2,500,000
JOBS
- President-elect Barack Obama is looking to pump money into the
economy, create millions of jobs and deliver a tax cut to the poor and
middle class. The two-year economic rescue is expected to cost about
$500 billion. "We have to make sure that the stimulus is significant
enough that it really gives a jolt to the economy, that it is putting
people back to work, that it is making investments, that it is
restoring some confidence in the business community that, in fact,
their products and services are going to have customers." Let's hope
his "market oriented" advisors make certain he understands that
government jobs don't create long-term wealth. Also, the "poor" don't
pay taxes. Hope he doesn't mean "tax rebates" for the 46% of Americans
who currently pay no income taxes.
BERNANKE
ADMITS MISTAKES
- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has admitted he misjudged the
impact the subprime-mortgage crisis would have on the broader financial
system. Well, there are lots of folks who need to come forward and
admit their mistakes...including a host of "elected officials."
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LATEST ON AIG BAILOUT
- That would be the $150 billion bailout! However, the company
has decided not to pay executive bonuses for 2008 and will restrict the
top executives' 2009 pay increases. To our way of thinking,
if a
company needs a massive tax bailout, perhaps there shouldn't be any pay
increases, but then there's Wachovia. Read on...
$98.1
MILLION SEVERANCE
- Wachovia, which lost $33 billion in the last two quarters, says that
10 top executives may be entitled to $98.1 million in severance pay
after the bank is acquired by Wells Fargo.
CITIGROUP
BAILOUT - Well, we believe this is now up to $45 billion
and it could be a lot more. Here is the latest take:
- Citi will carve out $300-billion in troubled
assets, which will remain on its balance sheet
- The first $37-$40 billion in losses on those
assets will go to Citi
- The next $5 billion in losses will hit Treasury
- The next $10 billion in losses will go to the FDIC
- Any more losses will go to the Fed
- There
will be no management changes at Citi, because, you know, they are all
fine and upstanding people who have done nothing wrong
- There will be some compensation limitations, but
those have not yet been made clear
CITI
JOB CUTS - Not sure this is with or without the bailout,
but some are predicting Citigroup could cut as many as 50,000 jobs.
HOME
FOR THE HOLIDAYS
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will suspend foreclosures and evictions on
delinquent mortgages from now through Jan. 9. The mortgage giants said
the move is intended to make it possible to include more struggling
homeowners in a program that changes mortgage terms to make them more
affordable.
FED
RATE AT 0%?
- Economists at JPMorgan Chase believe the Federal Reserve will likely
drop the federal-funds rate from 1% to 0% by the end of January, then
hold it for the rest of 2009. Hey, but what do the folks from JPMorgan
know?
INSURERS
BUYING BANKS
- U.S. life insurance companies have been acquiring small banks
and thrifts in an effort to obtain some of the government's rescue
funds. Lincoln National, Genworth and Hartford have all announced plans
to purchase small financial institutions so they can transform
themselves into savings-and-loan holding companies.
UBS TO
MAKE COMPENSATION CHANGES
- Well, it is better late than never. UBS appears to be the first
financial company to take action against absurd upper executive
compensation. The company's compensation system for its senior staff
will be revised starting next year and its 12 top executives will not
receive bonuses for 2008. The changes are part of an overhaul of the
company's model for executive compensation and could provide a
benchmark for other financial institutions grappling with executive-pay
issues during the economic downturn. Look for long bonuses tied to
long-term performance (3 years plus) rather than the absurd current
short-term programs. If fact, it would be a great improvement to not
give bonuses to anyone when a company loses money!
"NO
PLAYBOOK"
- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says he is trying to address the
financial crisis with a "one challenge at a time" strategy. "There is
no playbook for responding to turmoil we have never faced. We adjusted
our strategy to reflect the facts of a severe market crisis, always
keeping focused on our goal: to stabilize a financial system that is
integral to the everyday lives of all Americans." This statement was
made in response to criticism that the Troubled Asset Relief Program
has been enacted in a manner that is different than originally
conceived in legislation.
WORLD
ECONOMIC THINKING
- Leaders from the Group of 20 industrialized and emerging nations met
in Washington and vowed to avoid protectionism, work quickly toward an
overhaul of the regulatory system and shore up growth around the world.
The leaders presented a united front while promising to take "whatever
further actions are necessary to stabilize the financial system."
Observers say that the outcome would depend largely on the Obama
administration. This is no time to fumble!
INFRASTRUCTURE
- Well, we are not sure how bad the U.S. infrastructure is, but
President-elect Barack Obama's promise to upgrade it could benefit the
municipal bond market. That pledge could give states more federal funds
and a greater need to borrow in the market.
CLEARINGHOUSE
FOR CREDIT DERIVATIVES
- The Federal Reserve, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the
Commodity Futures Trading Commission are all reviewing proposals to set
up a central clearinghouse in the credit derivatives market.
The
clearinghouse is aimed at eliminating concerns over lax oversight in
the sector, but we suggest they get a definition of exactly what credit
derivatives are before they try to regulate them.
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REGULATION
NECESSARY
- Henry Paulson was one of the most successful bankers on Wall Street
and highly skeptical of government intervention in markets. Now, as
Treasury secretary, Paulson says, "My thinking has evolved a lot to the
point where I've seen regulation up close and personal. I've realized
how flawed it is and how imperfect but how necessary it is."
REGULATION
VERSUS ENTREPRENEURSHIP
- President-elect Barack Obama assured Wall Street that he would strive
for a balance between entrepreneurship and regulation. He said that the
financial-services industry does not need to fear "heavy-handed"
regulation and his top priority is to restore "a sense of trust and
openness" on Wall Street.
FEDERAL
REGULATION OF INSURANCE - According to an article in The National Underwriter,
an optional federal charter is unlikely in 2009 and, in fact, may never
be created. One reason...the incoming administration is more
likely to consolidate regulatory agencies than to create new
ones. Read
the article for more background.
OBAMA
TAX PLAN - Here's a summary of President-elect Obama's tax
plans in regard to individuals:
- Income
tax: Married couples earning over $250,000 and others earning over
$200,000 will go back to the top marginal tax rate of 39.6% and will
see the phase-out of personal exemptions and itemized deductions
continued. These increases, however, may not be implemented
in
the near term. Taxpayers over age 65 who make less than
$50,000
will not be subject to income tax.
- AMT:
Don't look for repeal of the alternative minimum tax; the revenues are
needed. At best, look for the AMT exemption to be indexed for
inflation.
- Capital
gains/dividends: The 15% tax rate will increase to 20% for
upper
income taxpayers. Again, however, the timing is uncertain.
- Tax
credits: An expansion of the existing child tax and saver's
credits; perhaps a new tax credit for taxpayers earning less than
$75,000.
- Estate/gift
tax: Retain the current top estate tax rate of 45%, but
increase
the exclusion to $7 million per couple. No change to the gift
tax.
VALUE
OF SOCIAL SECURITY
- Now might be a good time for all of us to remember the value of
Social Security retirement benefits to millions of Americans.
"It's one of the biggest assets for millions of Americans in or near
retirement. Despite a global financial crisis, it has kept
all
its value." Click
here for the full article.
WHAT IS
DEFLATION?
- Feared more than inflation, deflation has a distinct psychological
element. During a prolonged decline in prices, consumers and
businesses tend to curb their spending as they wait for prices to fall
even further. The providers of products and services struggle
and
ultimately go bust, increasing unemployment and reducing demand even
further. The value of a unit of money, such as the dollar,
increases, making it more expensive for government, business and
consumers to borrow which, in turn, leads to more defaults and
bankruptcy, making banks more wary of lending. Unless stopped
early, deflation can breed more deflation, leading to a deflationary
spiral. Here's a Bloomberg.com
article on the subject.
2009
INSURANCE MARKETS
- What impact will the financial meltdown have on insurance markets in
2009? With estates generally smaller in size, life insurance
can
be used to replace some of that lost value at a breadwinner's
death. With people having fewer assets and less borrowing
power
available, both disability income and long-term care insurance become
more important.
SUGGESTIONS
WELCOME
- The health policy team set up by President-elect Obama is asking
members of the public for their ideas on the U.S. health care
system. Click
here to share your thoughts.
AARP
MARKETING INVESTIGATION
- Following a Senate inquiry that found evidence of deceptive
marketing, AARP has hired an outside investigator to look into sales of
its indemnity health products which pay fixed cash benefits for
selected services. Sales of the products have also been
suspended. A copy of the AARP statement is available here.
PARADIGM
SHIFT - Here are new definitions for some old
and out-of-date financial terms.
CEO -
Chief Embezzlement Officer.
CFO - Corporate Fraud Officer.
BULL MARKET - A random market movement causing an
investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.
BEAR MARKET - A 6- to 18-month period when the
kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry.
VALUE INVESTING - The art of buying low and
selling lower.
P/E RATIO - The percentage of investors wetting
their pants as the market keeps crashing.
BROKER - What my broker has made me.
STANDARD & POOR - Your life in a nutshell.
STOCK ANALYST - Idiot who just downgraded your
stock.
STOCK SPLIT - When your ex-wife and her lawyer
split your assets equally between themselves.
FINANCIAL PLANNER - A guy whose phone has been
disconnected.
MARKET CORRECTION - The day after you buy stocks.
CASH FLOW - The movement your money makes as it
disappears down the toilet.
YAHOO - What you yell after selling it to some
poor sucker for $240 per share.
WINDOWS - What you jump out of when you're the
sucker who bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR - Past year investor who's
now locked up in a nuthouse.
PROFIT - An archaic word no longer in use.
IRA - Incredibly Reduced Assets
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